[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Super-Exponential Growth Expectations and the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias LEISS

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Heinrich H. NAX

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract
We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates into transient unsustainable price growth that may be identified as a bubble. We evaluate a "real-minus-implied risk premium", defined as the difference between real and option-implied returns, which reveals a doubling of the risk-aversion of investors, from 8% in the pre-crisis to 16% in the post-crisis period. Granger causality tests demonstrate that changes of option-implied returns lead the changes of Treasury bill yields with a lag of a few days in the pre-crisis period, while the reverse is true with a lag of 50 to 200 days in the post-crisis period. This suggests a transition from an abnormal regime preceding the crisis to a "new normal" post-crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias LEISS & Heinrich H. NAX & Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Super-Exponential Growth Expectations and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-52, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Sep 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2477396
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qun Zhang & Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Early Warning Signals of Financial Crises with Multi-Scale Quantile Regressions of Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-43, November.
    2. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    3. Ardila-Alvarez, Diego & Forro, Zalan & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "The acceleration effect and Gamma factor in asset pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    4. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2015. ""Speculative Influence Network" during financial bubbles: application to Chinese Stock Markets," Papers 1510.08162, arXiv.org.
    5. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 385-431, July.
    7. Damian Smug & Peter Ashwin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H., 2018. "Option-implied objective measures of market risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 241-249.
    9. L. Lin & M. Schatz & D. Sornette, 2019. "A simple mechanism for financial bubbles: time-varying momentum horizon," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 937-959, June.
    10. Pascal Frank & Markus Rudolf, 2024. "Is the Metaverse Dead? Insights from Financial Bubble Analysis," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2018. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 598-615.
    12. Samet Gunay & Gokberk Can, 2022. "The source of financial contagion and spillovers: An evaluation of the covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Anand, Abhinav & Li, Tiantian & Kurosaki, Tetsuo & Kim, Young Shin, 2016. "Foster–Hart optimal portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 117-130.
    14. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2016. "A Simple Mechanism for Financial Bubbles: Time-Varying Momentum Horizon," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-61, Swiss Finance Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option-implied returns; super-exponential growth; expectations; financial bubble; financial crisis; real-minus-implied risk premium; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ridima Mittal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fameech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.