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Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Kirchner
  • Malte Rieth
Abstract
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilization tools than hawkish inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 896, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:896
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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