[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/1706.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Mystery of TFP

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Oulton

    (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR))

Abstract
I analyse TFP growth at the sectoral and aggregate level, using data for 10 industry groups covering the market sector for 18 countries over the period 1970-2007 drawn from the EU KLEMS dataset. TFP growth displays persistence at the aggregate level but not at the industry level, suggesting industry outputs are measured with error. In all countries resources have been shifting away from industries with high TFP growth towards industries with low TFP growth. Nevertheless I find that structural change (as measured by changes in value added shares) has favoured growth in most countries. Errors in measuring capital or in measuring the elasticity of output with respect to capital are unlikely to substantially reduce the role of TFP in explaining growth. The pattern of growth in these 18 countries is more consistent with an underlying two-sector model than with the one-sector (Solow) model. Standard theory suggests that TFP growth induces capital accumulation, at least in the long run. This is not the case with the raw EU KLEMS data used here. But standard theory finds some support when the data are smoothed to remove cyclical effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Oulton, 2017. "The Mystery of TFP," Discussion Papers 1706, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1706
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussion-Papers/2017/CFMDP2017-06-Paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    4. Mariela Dal Borgo & Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Annarosa Pesole, 2013. "Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 806-834, December.
    5. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-627, October.
    6. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    7. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    8. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    9. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    10. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    11. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    12. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    14. Feenstra, Robert C & Markusen, James R, 1994. "Accounting for Growth with New Inputs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(2), pages 429-447, May.
    15. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    16. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    17. Erwin Diewert, 2015. "Reconciling Gross Output TFP Growth with Value Added TFP Growth," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 29, pages 60-67, Fall.
    18. Feenstra, Robert C & Markusen, James R & Zeile, William, 1992. "Accounting for Growth with New Inputs: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 415-421, May.
    19. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    20. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2013. "Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 305-334, February.
    21. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    22. Timmer,Marcel P. & Inklaar,Robert & O'Mahony,Mary & Ark,Bart van, 2013. "Economic Growth in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107412446, September.
    23. Corrado, Carol & Haltiwanger, John & Sichel, Daniel (ed.), 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226116129.
    24. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    25. Whelan, Karl, 2003. "A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-656, August.
    26. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    27. Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), 2012. "Industrial Productivity in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14369.
    28. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    29. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1.
    30. Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "An Interview with William J. Baumol," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 211-231, Summer.
    31. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Introduction to "Measuring Capital in the New Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    33. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    34. Baumol, William J & Wolff, Edward N, 1984. "On Interindustry Differences in Absolute Productivity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1017-1034, December.
    35. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    37. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1.
    38. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimiliano Iommi, 2013. "Innovation and intangible investment in Europe, Japan, and the United States," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 261-286, SUMMER.
    40. Nicholas Oulton & Ana Rincon-Aznar, 2009. "Rates of Return and Alternative Measures of Capital Input: 14 Countries and 10 Branches, 1971-2005," CEP Discussion Papers dp0957, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Gruhle, Tobias & Harms, Philipp, 2022. "Producer Services and the Current Account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    5. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Elchin Suleymanov & Heyran Aliyeva & Hezi Eynalov & Sa'd Shannak, 2022. "What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 147-174.
    6. André A. Hofman & Patricio Valderrama, 2021. "Long Run Economic Growth Performance In Latin America – 1820–2016," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 833-869, July.
    7. Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Stefano Schiavo & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2019. "How to revive productivity growth?," EconPol Policy Reports 13, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Philip Flegler & Hagen Krämer, 2021. "Das Produktivitätsparadoxon der unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleistungen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 38-45, March.
    9. Oulton, Nicholas & Rincon-Aznar, Ana & Samek, Lea & Srinivasan, Sylaja, 2018. "Double deflation: theory and practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100927, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Thomas Grjebine & Jérôme Héricourt & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Sectoral Reallocations, Real Estate Shocks and Productivity Divergence in Europe: a Tale of Three Countries," EconPol Policy Reports 15, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Francisco Pérez & Eva Benages, 2017. "The Role of Capital Accumulation in the Evolution of Total Factor Productivity in Spain," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 24-50, Fall.
    12. Hartwig, Jochen & Krämer, Hagen, 2019. "The ‘Growth Disease’ at 50 – Baumol after Oulton," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 463-471.
    13. Alexander Murray, 2016. "Partial versus Total Factor Productivity: Assessing Resource Use in Natural Resource Industries in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-20, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    14. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Hartwig Jochen & Krämer Hagen M., 2023. "Revisiting Baumol’s Disease: Structural Change, Productivity Slowdown and Income Inequality," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(6), pages 320-325, December.
    16. João Santos & Miguel Viana & Jaime Nieto & Paul E. Brockway & Marco Sakai & Tiago Domingos, 2024. "The Impact of Energy Efficiency on Economic Growth: Application of the MARCO Model to the Portuguese Economy 1960–2014," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Sodokin, Koffi & Kouwonou, Yao & Kodjovi Couchoro, Mawuli & Amadou, Akilou, 2024. "Monetary policy, threshold of profitability and dynamics of private investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "How to Boost Productivity in the EU," EconPol Policy Brief 08, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello & Camilla Lenzi & Giovanni Perucca, 2023. "Urban crisis vs. urban success in the era of 4.0 technologies: Baumol's model revisited," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 589-612, June.
    20. Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "How to Boost Productivity in the EU," EconPol Policy Brief 8, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Bill Martin & Centre for Business Research, 2018. "A Comment on Oulton, "The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?"," Working Papers wp498, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    22. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    23. -, 2018. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018. Evolution of investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts, determinants and policy challenges," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 43965 edited by Eclac.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    2. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    3. Alexander Murray, 2016. "Partial versus Total Factor Productivity: Assessing Resource Use in Natural Resource Industries in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-20, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. Hulten, Charles R., 2010. "Growth Accounting," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 987-1031, Elsevier.
    5. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John C. Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2019. "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 103-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2012. "Productivity Convergence Across Industries and Countries: The Importance of Theory-based Measurement," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Mariela Dal Borgo & Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Annarosa Pesole, 2013. "Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 806-834, December.
    8. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    9. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    11. Charles R. Hulten & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2017. "Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change," Working Papers 17-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Michael C Burda & Battista Severgnini, 2009. "TFP Growth in Old and New Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(4), pages 447-466, December.
    14. Roth, Felix, 2019. "Intangible Capital and Labour Productivity Growth: A Review of the Literature," Hamburg Discussion Papers in International Economics 4, University of Hamburg, Department of Economics.
    15. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2017. "Knowledge Spillovers, ICT and Productivity Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 592-618, August.
    17. Rui Castro & Pavel Ševčík, 2024. "Occupational choice, human capital and financial constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 674-703, August.
    18. John (Jianqiu) Bai & Daniel Carvalho & Gordon M. Phillips, 2018. "The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2787-2836, December.
    19. Massimo Del Gatto & Adriana Di Liberto & Carmelo Petraglia, 2011. "Measuring Productivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 952-1008, December.
    20. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helen Power (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.