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Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model

Author

Listed:
  • John Whalley
  • Jun Yu
  • Shunming Zhang
Abstract
We explore how outcomes of trade policy retaliation (Nash tariff games) are affected when trade simultaneously takes places geographically across countries and through time via financial intermediation. In such models deficits and surpluses in goods trade are endogenously determined, and retaliatory trade policy towards goods can affect these and monetary trade models show different retaliatory trade outcomes from conventional goods only models. We use a general equilibrium goods trade model which also captures trade through time in the form of inside money as used in macro literature on one good overlapping generations models. In this model the deficit or surplus of any country in goods trade is endogenous determined. Optimal trade policy differs from that in a conventional goods only trade model in that countries which run trade deficits in goods will have more strategic power through tariff policy (and surplus countries less) than in models with balanced trade. We calibrate such a model to China’s trade with the rest of the world and explore two country tariff games using 2005 data. Results show the significant impacts on Nash outcomes of endogenizing the Chinese trade surplus in the model in this way.

Suggested Citation

  • John Whalley & Jun Yu & Shunming Zhang, 2009. "Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2526, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2526
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chunding Li & John Whalley & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2021. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 78-105.
    2. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2012. "China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," NBER Working Papers 18090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2011. "Optimal tariff calculations in tariff games with climate change considerations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1431-1435.
    4. Chunding Li, 2017. "How Would Bilateral Trade Retaliation Affect China?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 459-479, March.
    5. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2017. "Indirect Tax Initiatives and Global Rebalancing," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(1), pages 24-44.
    6. He, Chuantian & Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2017. "The Armington assumption and the size of optimal tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 214-222.
    7. Bekkers, Eddy & Francois, Joseph & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2019. "Trade Wars: Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition," Papers 1234, World Trade Institute.
    8. Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inside money; general equilibrium; Nash equilibrium; numerical analysis; tariff rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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