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Unbalanced Financial Globalization

Author

Listed:
  • Damien Capelle
  • Bruno Pellegrino
Abstract
We examine the impact of the last five decades of financial globalization on world GDP and income distribution, using a novel multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates a demand system for international assets. We introduce, estimate and validate new country-level measures of inward and outward Revealed Capital Account Openness (RKO), derived from wedge accounting. The implementation of our framework requires only minimal data, which is available as early as 1970 (national income accounts, external assets and liabilities positions). Our RKO wedges reveal enormous heterogeneity in the pace of capital account liberalization, with richer countries liberalizing much faster than poorer ones. We call this pattern Unbalanced Financial Globalization. We then simulate a counterfactual trajectory of the world economy where the RKO wedges are fixed at their pre-globalization levels. We find that unbalanced financial globalization led to a worsening of capital allocation, a 2.8% lower world GDP, a 12% rise in the cross-country dispersion of GDP per capita, lower wages in poorer countries and lower cost of capital in high-income countries. These findings starkly contrast with the predictions of standard models of financial markets integration, where capital account barriers decline symmetrically across countries. In a counterfactual scenario where countries open their capital account in a symmetric or convergent fashion, we find diametrically opposite effects: significant improvements in capital allocation efficiency and lower cross-country inequality, higher wages in poor countries, etc... Our results highlight the pivotal role played by country heterogeneity in shaping the real consequences of capital markets integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Capelle & Bruno Pellegrino, 2023. "Unbalanced Financial Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 10642, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10642
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2019. "The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 163-198, December.
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    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    4. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    5. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    6. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Mrs. Sarwat Jahan & Daili Wang, 2016. "Capital Account Openness in Low-income Developing Countries: Evidence from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2016/252, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Tony Zhang, 2022. "A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 30253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; capital allocation; capital misallocation; globalization; international finance; open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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