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Fire Sales and Ex Ante Valuation of Systemic Risk: A Financial Equilibrium Networks Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Spiros Bougheas
  • Adam Hal Spencer
Abstract
We introduce endogenous fire sales into a simple network model. For any given initial distribution of shocks across the network, we develop a clearing algorithm to solve for the financial equilibrium. We then utilise the results to perform ex ante risk assessment and derive risk premia for every balance sheet item where liabilities are differentiated according to priority rights. We find that risk premia reflect both idiosyncratic risk and risk of contagion (network risk). Moreover, we show that network risk magnifies the gap between the risk premia of equity and debt. We also perform comparative statics, showing that changes to the distribution of shocks and network structure can have substantial effects on the level of systemic losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Spiros Bougheas & Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Fire Sales and Ex Ante Valuation of Systemic Risk: A Financial Equilibrium Networks Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10111, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10111
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    networks; fire sales; systemic risk premia; risk assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

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