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Politics in the Facebook Era - Evidence from the 2016 US Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Federica Liberini
  • Michela Redoano
  • Antonio Russo
  • Ángel Cuevas
  • Rubén Cuevas
Abstract
Through social media, politicians can personalize their campaigns and target specific groups of voters with an unprecedented precision. We assess the effects of such political micro-targeting by exploiting daily advertising prices on Facebook during the 2016 US presidential campaign. We measure the intensity of online campaigns using variation in ad prices charged to reach certain audiences, defined by political orientation, location, and demographic characteristics. We address two fundamental questions: How intensively did social media political campaigns target each audience? How large were any effects on voters? We find that micro-targeted political ads on social media had significant effects when based on geographical location, ideology, ethnicity, and gender. Exposure to these ads made individuals less likely to change their initial voting intentions, particularly among those who had expressed an intention to vote for Donald Trump. We also find that micro-targeted ads reduced turnout among targeted liberals, whereas they increased turnout and support for Trump among targeted moderates.

Suggested Citation

  • Federica Liberini & Michela Redoano & Antonio Russo & Ángel Cuevas & Rubén Cuevas, 2020. "Politics in the Facebook Era - Evidence from the 2016 US Presidential Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 8235, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Cantarella, Michele & Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Volpe, Roberto, 2023. "Does fake news affect voting behaviour?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    3. Anna Kerkhof & Johannes Münster, 2021. "Detecting Coverage Bias in User-Generated Content," CESifo Working Paper Series 8844, CESifo.
    4. Maria Abreu & Özge Öner, 2020. "Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1434-1456, October.
    5. van Gils, Freek & Müller, Wieland & Prüfer, Jens, 2020. "Big Data and Democracy," Discussion Paper 2020-003, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    6. Anna Kerkhof & Johannes Münster, 2021. "Detecting coverage bias in user-generated content," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 057, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. Sarah Spiekermann & Hanna Krasnova & Oliver Hinz & Annika Baumann & Alexander Benlian & Henner Gimpel & Irina Heimbach & Antonia Köster & Alexander Maedche & Björn Niehaves & Marten Risius & Manuel Tr, 2022. "Values and Ethics in Information Systems," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 64(2), pages 247-264, April.
    8. Giacomo De Luca & Thilo R. Huning & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2021. "Britain has had enough of experts? Social networks and the Brexit referendum," Discussion Papers 21/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Spiekermann, Sarah & Krasnova, Hanna & Hinz, Oliver & Baumann, Annika & Benlian, Alexander & Gimpel, Henner & Heimbach, Irina & Köster, Antonia & Maedche, Alexander & Niehaves, Björn & Risius, Marten , 2022. "Values and Ethics in Information Systems – A State-of-the-Art Analysis and Avenues for Future Research," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 130842, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    social media; political micro-targeting; elections; advertising; populism; polarization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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