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Persistence in the Market Risk Premium: Evidence across Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Miguel Martin-Valmayor
Abstract
This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany and Japan, and for robustness purposes considers different time horizons (2, 5 and 10 years) and frequencies (monthly and weekly). The empirical findings in most cases imply that the market risk premium is a highly persistent variable which can be characterized as a random walk process, whilst its volatility is less persistent and exhibits stationary long-memory behaviour. There is also evidence that in the case of the US the degree of persistence has changed as a results of various events; this is confirmed by both endogenous break tests and the associated subsample estimates. Market participants should take this evidence into account when designing their investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2020. "Persistence in the Market Risk Premium: Evidence across Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8211, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8211
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8211.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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    3. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yundong Tu & Aman Ullah, 2015. "Forecasting Equity Premium: Global Historical Average Versus Local Historical Average and Constraints," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 393-402, July.
    4. Eric Jacquier & Alex Kane & Alan J. Marcus, 2005. "Optimal Estimation of the Risk Premium for the Long Run and Asset Allocation: A Case of Compounded Estimation Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 37-55.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
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    8. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C & Nelson, Charles R, 2004. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 339-360, June.
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    11. Levi, Yaron & Welch, Ivo, 2017. "Best Practice for Cost-of-Capital Estimates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 427-463, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & María Malmierca, 2022. "Credit-to-GDP ratios – non-linear trends and persistence: evidence from 44 OECD economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(3), pages 448-463, March.
    2. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.
    3. Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & G. R. Chandrashekhar, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on ETF and index efficiency: evidence from an entropy-based analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 347-359, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; risk premium; persistence; mean reversion; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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