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Fiscal Consolidation and the Current Account: OECD Evidence

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  • Christian Breuer
  • Chang Woon Nam
Abstract
We apply a “new” conventional (CAPB-based) measure of fiscal policy, which is less prone to endogeneity issues, and find that a 1-percent of GDP fiscal consolidation leads to the improvement of the current account-to-GDP ratio by approximately 0.8 percent of GDP, while previous research based on conventional measures found a relationship of only 0.1-0.3 percentage points. We suggest that previous results based on conventional measures are biased towards underestimating the twin-deficit linkage because of endogeneity issues and the failure to adjust the CAPB for cyclical effects. After adjustment, the twin-deficit effect is particularly pronounced in the case of expenditure cuts and in Eurozone countries. These findings are in line with previous evidence based on narrative measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Breuer & Chang Woon Nam, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Current Account: OECD Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8071, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8071
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breuer, Christian, 2017. "Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality," MPRA Paper 77556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. John Bluedorn & Daniel Leigh, 2011. "Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 582-602, November.
    3. Alberto Alesina & David W. R. Gruen & Matthew T. Jones, 1991. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 38-51, July.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2010/121, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    7. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances Coming Back," Working Paper Series WP11-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    9. Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
    10. Christian Breuer, 2019. "State Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality: A Critique of the Conventional Approach," Working Papers Series 98, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal adjustment; current account; twin deficit; Eurozone countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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