[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period

Author

Listed:
  • David S. Jacks
  • Dennis Novy
Abstract
What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Jacks & Dennis Novy, 2019. "Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period," CESifo Working Paper Series 7665, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7665.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 2010. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 871-897, December.
    2. Jacks, David S. & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 221-237.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "The Regionalization of the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran98-1.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    5. J. E. Lattimer, 1934. "The Ottawa Trade Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 565-581.
    6. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-201, March.
    7. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133.
    9. Gowa, Joanne & Hicks, Raymond, 2013. "Politics, Institutions, and Trade: Lessons of the Interwar Era," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 439-467, July.
    10. Jacks, David S., 2014. "Defying gravity: The Imperial Economic Conference and the reorientation of Canadian trade," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 19-39.
    11. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    12. William Hynes & David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'rourke, 2012. "Commodity market disintegration in the interwar period," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 119-143, May.
    13. David S. Jacks & John P. Tang, 2018. "Trade and Immigration, 1870-2010," NBER Working Papers 25010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Douglas A. Irwin, 2011. "Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9430.
    15. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    16. Alan de Bromhead & Alan Fernihough & Markus Lampe, 2018. "The anatomy of a trade collapse: The UK, 1929-33," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _160, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    18. Nikolaus Wolf & Albrecht O. Ritschl, 2011. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 291-312, May.
    19. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 206-221.
    20. Peter Temin, 1993. "Transmission of the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 87-102, Spring.
    21. Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
    22. Gary S. Fields, 2003. "Accounting For Income Inequality And Its Change: A New Method, With Application To The Distribution Of Earnings In The United States," Research in Labor Economics, in: Worker Well-Being and Public Policy, pages 1-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    23. Thilo N. H. Albers, 2020. "Currency devaluations and beggar‐my‐neighbour penalties: evidence from the 1930s," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(1), pages 233-257, February.
    24. Alan de Bromhead & Alan Fernihough & Markus Lampe & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2019. "When Britain Turned Inward: The Impact of Interwar British Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 325-352, February.
    25. Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    2. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Thorbecke, Willem & Chen, Chen & Salike, Nimesh, 2021. "China’s exports in a protectionist world," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    5. Berbenni, Enrico, 2021. "External devaluation and trade balance in 1930s Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 93-107.
    6. Kris James Mitchener & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Kirsten Wandschneider, 2022. "The Smoot-Hawley Trade War," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2500-2533.
    7. Kym Anderson, 2021. "Food policy in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Departmental Working Papers 2021-25, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    8. Florin Marius PAVELESCU, 2021. "The kitchin cycles of interwar Romania’s economy," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 53(2(62)), pages 05-26, December.
    9. Pushkar Pushp & Arbuda Sharma & Faisal Ahmed, 2024. "Flexibility in the WTO: Navigating the Dynamics of Multilateralism Using Grounded Theory," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 25(4), pages 805-823, December.
    10. David M Higgins & Brian D Varian, 2021. "Britain’s Empire Marketing Board and the failure of soft trade policy, 1926–33 [Bringing another empire alive? The Empire Marketing Board and the construction of Dominion identity, 1926–1933]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(4), pages 780-805.
    11. Kris James Mitchener Author e-mail: kmitchener@scu.edu & Kirsten Wandschneider Author e-mail: kirsten.wandschneider@univie.ac.at & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke Author e-mail: akevin.orourke@nyu.edu, 2021. "The Smoot-Hawley Trade War," Working Papers 20210061, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Mar 2021.
    12. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2020. "Trade Wars: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Hal Hill, 2020. "Comment on “Trade Blocs and Trade Wars During the Interwar Period”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 137-138, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam, Marc Christopher, 2019. "Return of the tariffs: The interwar trade collapse revisited," Discussion Papers 2019/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. O'Rourke, Kevin, 2017. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared," CEPR Discussion Papers 12286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2018. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period and Great Recession Compared," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 418-439, September.
    4. David S. Jacks, 2011. "Defying Gravity: The 1932 Imperial Economic Conference and the Reorientation of Canadian Trade," NBER Working Papers 17242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jacks, David S., 2014. "Defying gravity: The Imperial Economic Conference and the reorientation of Canadian trade," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 19-39.
    6. Richard S. Grossman & Christopher M. Meissner, 2010. "International aspects of the Great Depression and the crisis of 2007: similarities, differences, and lessons," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 318-338, Autumn.
    7. Kris James Mitchener & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Kirsten Wandschneider, 2022. "The Smoot-Hawley Trade War," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2500-2533.
    8. Kris James Mitchener Author e-mail: kmitchener@scu.edu & Kirsten Wandschneider Author e-mail: kirsten.wandschneider@univie.ac.at & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke Author e-mail: akevin.orourke@nyu.edu, 2021. "The Smoot-Hawley Trade War," Working Papers 20210061, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Mar 2021.
    9. Laura Panza, 2024. "From a common empire to colonial rule: Commodity market disintegration in the Near East," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 584-611, May.
    10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    11. Mathy, Gabriel P. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2011. "Business cycle co-movement: Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 362-372.
    12. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2011. "Logistics and Bilateral Exports in Developing Countries: A Multiplicative Form Estimation of the Logistics Augmented Gravity Equation," Discussion Papers 11/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    13. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-201, March.
    14. Vellore Arthi & Markus Lampe & Ashwin Nair & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2024. "Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 23-47.
    15. Brian D. Varian, 2022. "Imperial preference before the Ottawa Agreements: Evidence from New Zealand's Preferential and Reciprocal Trade Act of 1903," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1214-1241, November.
    16. Meissner, Christopher M., 2014. "Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long Run," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 1033-1069, Elsevier.
    17. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    18. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    19. David M Higgins & Brian D Varian, 2021. "Britain’s Empire Marketing Board and the failure of soft trade policy, 1926–33 [Bringing another empire alive? The Empire Marketing Board and the construction of Dominion identity, 1926–1933]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(4), pages 780-805.
    20. O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2019. "Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 356-382, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commonwealth; distance; gravity; interwar period; trade blocs; trade wars;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.