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Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement

Author

Listed:
  • Shafik Hebous
  • Tom Zimmermann
Abstract
We study the effects of federal purchases on firm investment using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts in the United States with key financial firm-level information. Using panel fixed-effect models, propensity score matching, and inverse probability weighting estimation techniques, we find that 1 dollar of federal spending increases firms’ capital investment by 10 to 13 cents. In line with the financial accelerator model, our findings indicate that the effect of government purchases works through easing firms’ access to external borrowing. In particular, the effect is stronger for firms that face financing constraints and it is insignificant for unconstrained firms. Moreover, an industry-level analysis suggests that that the increase in investment at the firm level translates into an industry-wide effect without crowding-out capital investment of other firms in the same industry. Overall, our findings lend support to recent evidence on local multipliers in that increases in regional outputs should ultimately be reflected in firm balance sheets (demand for capital).

Suggested Citation

  • Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2019. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7534, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7534
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    Cited by:

    1. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2021. "Procuring survival," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-093, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Brogaard, Jonathan & Gerasimova, Nataliya & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2024. "The effect of female leadership on contracting from Capitol Hill to Main Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2024. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    4. Julian di Giovanni & Manuel García-Santana & Priit Jeenas & Enrique Moral-Benitoz & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2022. "Government Procurement and Access to Credit: Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2233, Banco de España.
    5. Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo M. Giuffrida, 2024. "Targeted Bidders in Government Tenders," CESifo Working Paper Series 11142, CESifo.
    6. Julian di Giovanni & Manuel García-Santana & Priit Jeenas & Enrique Moral-Benito & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2022. "Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy," Staff Reports 1006, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Matilde Cappelletti & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2022. "Procuring Survival," CESifo Working Paper Series 10124, CESifo.
    8. Sanfilippo, Marco, 2018. "Firm performance and participation in public procurement: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 12752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Awad Ali Alanzi, 2021. "Saudi Procurement System and Regulations: Overview of Local and International Administrative Contracts," Laws, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, May.
    10. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo & Filippo Santi, 2022. "Government Demand and Domestic Firms Growth: Evidence from Uganda," RSCAS Working Papers 2022/54, European University Institute.
    12. Caravella, Serenella & Crespi, Francesco & Guarascio, Dario & Tubiana, Matteo, 2020. "Competitive strategies, heterogeneous demand sources and firms’ growth trajectories," GLO Discussion Paper Series 442, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Donghun Yoon, 2023. "The Improvement Policy Design of Public Procurement Process for the Public Management Innovation in South Korea," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    14. Hang, Jing & Zhan, Chaoqun, 2023. "Government procurement and resource misallocation: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 568-589.
    15. Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public expenditure multipliers and informality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Bernard Hoekman & Marco Sanfilippo, 2020. "Foreign participation in public procurement and firm performance: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 41-73, February.
    17. Kim, Wongi, 2023. "Private sector debt overhang and government spending multipliers: Not all debts are alike," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2022. "Targeted bidders in government tenders," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Tkachenko, Andrey, 2022. "State-business relations and access to external financing," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; federal procurement; financing constraints; spending; multipliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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