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Guaranteed Renewable Life Insurance Under Demand Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hoy
  • Afrasiab Mirza
  • Asha Sadanand
Abstract
Guaranteed renewability is a prominent feature in many health and life insurance markets. It is well established in the literature that, when there is (only) risk type uncertainty, the optimal GR contract with renewal price set at the actuarially fair price for low risk types provides full insurance against reclassification risk. We develop a model that includes unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over individuals' lifetimes. The presence of demand type heterogeneity leads to the possibility that optimal GR contracts may have a renewal price that is either above or below the actuarially fair price of the lowest risk type in the population. Individuals whose type turns out to be high risk but low demand renew more of their GR insurance than is efficient due to the attractive renewal price. This results in incomplete insurance against re-classification risk. Although a first best efficient contract is not possible in the presence of demand type heterogeneity, the presence of GR contracts nonetheless improves welfare relative to an environment with only spot markets. Our results also apply to a comparison of environments with short versus long term (front loaded) insurance contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hoy & Afrasiab Mirza & Asha Sadanand, 2018. "Guaranteed Renewable Life Insurance Under Demand Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 7103, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7103
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanming Fang & Edward Kung, 2021. "Why do life insurance policyholders lapse? The roles of income, health, and bequest motive shocks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 937-970, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    insurance; guaranteed renewability; re-classification risk; demand uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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