[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_6430.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shadow Economies around the World: New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro Medina
  • Friedrich Schneider
Abstract
Using the MIMIC method, this paper is a first attempt to estimate the size of the shadow economy of 158 countries over the period 1991 up to 2015. In addition to performing a variety of robustness tests, this paper explicitly addresses endogeneity concerns to the use of GDP as cause and indicator, by using the light intensity approach as an indicator variable as proxy for the size of the economy. Results suggest that the average size of the shadow economy of these 158 countries over 1991-2015 is 32.5% of official GDP, which was 34.82% in 1991 and decreased to 30.66% in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Shadow Economies around the World: New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015," CESifo Working Paper Series 6430, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6430.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:109-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zellner, Arnold, 1970. "Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 441-454, October.
    3. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    4. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Schneider Friedrich, 2015. "Schattenwirtschaft und Schattenarbeitsmarkt: Die Entwicklungen der vergangenen 20 Jahre," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 3-25, March.
    6. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    8. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894.
    9. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    10. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    11. Arne Jon Isachsen & Steiner Strøm, 1985. "The Size And Growth Of The Hidden Economy In Norway," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 31(1), pages 21-38, March.
    12. Philip Cagan, 1958. "The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply, pages 1-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    14. Little, Roderick J A, 1988. "Missing-Data Adjustments in Large Surveys: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 300-301, July.
    15. Leandro Medina & Mr. Andrew W Jonelis & Mehmet Cangul, 2017. "The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Size and Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2017/156, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Little, Roderick J A, 1988. "Missing-Data Adjustments in Large Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 287-296, July.
    17. Désirée Teobaldelli & Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "The influence of direct democracy on the shadow economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 543-567, December.
    18. Hassan, Mai & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 157 Countries Worldwide: Updated and New Measures from 1999 to 2013," IZA Discussion Papers 10281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Contini, Bruno B, 1981. "Labor Market Segmentation and the Development of the Parallel Economy-The Italian Experience," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 401-412, November.
    20. Susan Pozo (ed.), 1996. "Exploring the Underground Economy," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number eue.
    21. Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2008. "Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2008/102, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Leandro Medina, 2013. "Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2013/137, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Edgar L. Feige, 1979. "How Big Is the Irregular Economy?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 5-13, November.
    24. Frey, Bruno S. & Weck-Hanneman, Hannelore, 1984. "The hidden economy as an 'unobserved' variable," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 33-53.
    25. Andreas Buehn & Alexander Karmann & Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Shadow Economy and Do-it-Yourself Activities: The German Case," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 165(4), pages 701-722, December.
    26. Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Comment on Feige's Paper "Reflections on the Meaning and Measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the 'Shadow Economy'?"," CESifo Working Paper Series 5818, CESifo.
    27. Friedrich Schneider (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13432.
    28. Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551.
    29. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    2. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    4. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Khorana, Sangeeta & Caram, Santiago & Biagetti, Marco, 2021. "Vicious Circle or New Paradigm? Exploring the Impact of Shadow Economy on Labour Market in Latin America and Eurozone," GLO Discussion Paper Series 983, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Donal Mac Géidigh & Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Grey Matters: Charting the Development of the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6234, CESifo.
    9. repec:ces:ifodic:v:14:y:2017:i:4:p:19267788 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly-developed Countries: Selected New Results," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 44-53, February.
    11. Friedrich Schneider, 2017. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly-developed Countries: Selected New Results," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(4), pages 44-53, 02.
    12. Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551.
    13. Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "Outside the State - the Shadow Economy and Shadow Economy Labor Force," CESifo Working Paper Series 4829, CESifo.
    14. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    15. Andreas Buehn & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "The Shadow Economy and Do-it-Yourself Activities: What Do We Know?," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Piotr Dybka & Michał Kowalczuk & Bartosz Olesiński & Andrzej Torój & Marek Rozkrut, 2019. "Currency demand and MIMIC models: towards a structured hybrid method of measuring the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 4-40, February.
    17. Emmanuel Umoru Haruna & Usman Alhassan, 2022. "Does digitalization limit the proliferation of the shadow economy in African countries? An in‐depth panel analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 34-62, July.
    18. Putniņš, Tālis J. & Sauka, Arnis, 2015. "Measuring the shadow economy using company managers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 471-490.
    19. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2011. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Work in OECD Countries," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    21. Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "In the Shadow of the State – The Informal Economy and Informal Economy Labor Force," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 227-248, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economies of 158 countries; MIMIC estimations; the light intensity approach; tax burden; regulation; trade openness; corruption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.