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Central Bank Policy Rates: Are they Cointegrated?

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Hector Carcel
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
Abstract
This paper analyses the stochastic properties of and the bilateral linkages between the central bank policy rates of the US, the Eurozone, Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK using fractional integration and cointegration techniques respectively. The univariate analysis suggests a high degree of persistence in all cases: the fractional integration parameter d is estimated to be above 1, ranging from 1.26 (US) to 1.48 (UK), with the single exception of Japan, for which the unit root null cannot be rejected. Concerning the bivariate results, Australian interest rates are found to be cointegrated with the Eurozone and UK ones, Canadian rates with the UK and US ones, and Japanese rates with the UK ones. The increasingdegree of integration of international financial markets and the coordinated monetary policy responses following the global financial crisis might both account for such linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "Central Bank Policy Rates: Are they Cointegrated?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6389, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6389
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. repec:exl:29stat:v:20:y:2019:i:3:p:119- is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nuruddeen Usman & Martins Apinran, 2024. "Policy rates in ECOWAS: are they fractionally cointegrated?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2020. "Transmission of International Financial Shocks: A Cross Country Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 236-259, December.
    5. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2020. "International Spillovers of Interest Rate Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(10), pages 215-222, October.
    6. Ming-Hua Liu & Dimitris Margaritis & Yang Zhang, 2023. "The impact of regulation on credit card market competition: evidence from Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 669-689, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; long memory; fractional integration and cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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