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Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?

Author

Listed:
  • Alena Bicakova
  • Zuzana Prelcova
  • Renata Pasalicova
Abstract
We use Household Budget Survey data to analyze the evolution of the household credit market in the Czech Republic over the period 2000–2008. We next merge our data with the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions in 2005–2008, in order to test the validity of the standard debt burden measure as a predictor of default. We propose an alternative indicator – the adjusted debt burden (ADB), defined as the ratio of loan repayments to discretionary income, constructed as net income minus the living minimum, which turns out to be a superior predictor of default risk. Limited by the data, we use a fairly broad concept of default, namely, the inability to make loan repayments on time. Based on the distribution of default risk across the levels of the adjusted debt burden, we suggest that a 30% ADB threshold should be used as the definition of overindebtedness, with an average default risk of 17%. Finally, we show that overindebtedness and local economic shocks are closely related, suggesting that default risk should be always considered in the context of regional economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alena Bicakova & Zuzana Prelcova & Renata Pasalicova, 2011. "Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp443, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp443
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Thorsten & Kibuuka, Katie & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2010. "Mortgage Finance in Central and Eastern Europe: Opportunity or Burden?," IZA Discussion Papers 4758, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Slawomir Zajaczkowski & Dawid Zochowski, 2007. "The distribution and dispersion of debt burden ratios among households in Poland and its implications for financial stability," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 62-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marco Di Maggio, 2013. "Households' indebtedness and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 23-46, January.
    4. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Christophe André, 2006. "Has the Rise in Debt Made Households More Vulnerable?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 535, OECD Publishing.
    5. Daniela Vandone, 2007. "Consumer credit in Italy. Diffusion and territorial differences," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1062, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
    6. C. Alan Garner, 1996. "Can measures of the consumer debt burden reliably predict an economic slowdown?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q IV), pages 63-76.
    7. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamil Galuščák & Petr Hlaváč & Petr Jakubík, 2016. "Household resilience to adverse macroeconomic shocks: evidence from Czech microdata," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 377-402, May.
    2. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    3. Gabriela Kuvikova, 2015. "Does Loan Maturity Matter in Risk-Based Pricing? Evidence from Consumer Loan Data," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp538, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household credit; debt burden; repayment; regional default risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R29 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other

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