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Quantifying the Impact of Leveraging and Diversification on Systemic Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Tasca, Paolo
  • Mavrodiev, Pavlin
  • Schweitzer, Frank
Abstract
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be considered independent. Based on the structural framework by Merton (1974), we discuss a model in which these correlations arise from overlaps in banks' portfolios. Portfolio diversification is used as a strategy to mitigate losses from investments in risky projects. We calculate an optimal level of diversification that has to be reached for a given level of excessive leverage to still mitigate an increase in systemic risk. In our model, this optimal diversification further depends on the market size and the market conditions (e.g. volatility). It allows to distinguish between a safe regime, in which excessive leverage does not result in an increase of systemic risk, and a risky regime, in which excessive leverage cannot be mitigated leading to an increased systemic risk. Our results are of relevance for financial regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Tasca, Paolo & Mavrodiev, Pavlin & Schweitzer, Frank, 2013. "Quantifying the Impact of Leveraging and Diversification on Systemic Risk," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt7s57834n, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:rpfina:qt7s57834n
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    Cited by:

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    3. Opeoluwa Banwo & Paul Harrald & Francesca Medda, 2019. "Understanding the consequences of diversification on financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 273-292, June.
    4. Yajing Huang & Taoxiong Liu, 2023. "Diversification and Systemic Risk of Networks Holding Common Assets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 341-388, January.
    5. Bakoush, Mohamed & Gerding, Enrico & Mishra, Tapas & Wolfe, Simon, 2022. "An integrated macroprudential stress test of bank liquidity and solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    7. Douglas da Rosa München & Herbert Kimura, 2020. "Regulatory Banking Leverage: what do you know?," Working Papers Series 540, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Jung-Bin Su, 2020. "The Implementation of Asset Allocation Approaches: Theory and Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-28, September.
    9. Vahan Nanumyan & Antonios Garas & Frank Schweitzer, 2015. "The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Opeoluwa Banwo & Fabio Caccioli & Paul Harrald & Francesca Medda, 2016. "The Effect Of Heterogeneity On Financial Contagion Due To Overlapping Portfolios," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Vahan Nanumyan & Antonios Garas & Frank Schweitzer, 2015. "The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives," Papers 1506.04663, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Tasca, Paolo & Battiston, Stefano & Deghi, Andrea, 2017. "Portfolio diversification and systemic risk in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 96-124.
    13. Carmelo Algeri & Antonio F. Forgione & Carlo Migliardo, 2022. "Do spatial dependence and market power matter in the diversification of cooperative banks?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(3), November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business; Systemic Risk; Leverage; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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