[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/anderf/qt5z42g22g.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Market Price Of Risk In Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles Of Default And Liquidity Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jun
  • Longstaff, Francis A.
  • Mandell, Ravit E.
Abstract
We study how the market prices the default and liquidity risks incorporated into one of the most important credit spreads in the financial markets–interest rate swap spreads. Our approach consists of jointly modeling the Treasury, repo, and swap term structures using a general five-factor affine credit framework and estimating the parameters by maximum likelihood. We find that the credit spread is driven by changes in a persistent liquidity process and a rapidly mean-reverting default intensity process. Although both processes have similar volatilities, we find that the credit premium priced into swap rates is primarily compensation for liquidity risk. The term structure of liquidity premia increases steeply with maturity. In contrast, the term structure of default premia is almost flat. However, both liquidity and default premia vary significantly over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2004. "The Market Price Of Risk In Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles Of Default And Liquidity Risks," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5z42g22g, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt5z42g22g
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5z42g22g.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooper, Ian A & Mello, Antonio S, 1991. "The Default Risk of Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 597-620, June.
    2. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Chapman, David A & Long, John B, Jr & Pearson, Neil D, 1999. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When Are Three Months Like an Instant?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 763-806.
    5. John Kambhu, 2004. "Trading risk and volatility in interest rate swap spreads," Staff Reports 178, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
    7. Pearson, N.D. & Sun, T.S., 1991. "An Empirical Examination of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Papers fb-24, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    8. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    9. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
    10. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    11. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    12. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
    13. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    14. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-292.
    15. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. "Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
    16. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    17. John J. Pringle & Larry D. Wall, 1987. "Alternate explanations of interest rate swaps," Proceedings 154, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    18. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. "Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July.
    19. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    20. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. "Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-850, July.
    21. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    22. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    23. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, June.
    24. Bicksler, James & Chen, Andrew H, 1986. "An Economic Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 645-655, July.
    25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
    26. Afonso, Antonio & Strauch, Rolf, 2007. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-276, July.
    27. Ying Huang & Salih Neftci & Ira Jersey, 2002. "What Drives Swap Spreads, Credit or Liquidity?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    28. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
    29. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    30. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0zw4f9w6, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    4. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    6. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    7. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    8. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    9. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    10. Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Hwa-Sung, 2005. "Pricing counterparty default risks: Applications to FRNs and vulnerable options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 376-392.
    11. Finbarr Murphy & Bernard Murphy, 2012. "A vector-autoregression analysis of credit and liquidity factor dynamics in US LIBOR and Euribor swap markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 351-370, April.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    13. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    14. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149, September.
    16. Mark Grinblatt, 2002. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm39, Yale School of Management.
    17. Adam Kobor & Lishan Shi & Ivan Zelenko, 2005. "What Determines U.S. Swap Spreads?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7272.
    18. Cossin, Didier & Pirotte, Hugues, 1997. "Swap credit risk: An empirical investigation on transaction data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1351-1373, October.
    19. Yalin Gündüz & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2014. "Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 39-78, April.
    20. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    21. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt5z42g22g. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aguclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.