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What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation for the world economy

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Abstract
We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Eurozone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference,the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model's implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but 'traditional' shocks explain the bulk of the crisis,the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a 'run' of bad shocks,based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises - provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation for the world economy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2013/3
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    Cited by:

    1. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Vo Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2014. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 123-161, February.
    3. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of Quantitative Easing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 85-102.
    4. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2021. "China’s market economy, shadow banking and the frequency of growth slowdown," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 420-444, September.
    5. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2021. "Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk‐pooling match the facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1993-2021, April.
    6. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2015. "China s financial crisis the role of banks and monetary policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; Financial Frictions; China; Crises; Indirect Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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