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New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement

Author

Listed:
  • Roxana Gutierrez-Romero

    (School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London.)

  • Nayeli Salgado

    (Vienna University of Economics.)

Abstract
This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the Survey of Migration to the Southern Border of Mexico. Yet, there was a rise of nearly 30% in the number of emigration crossings of male adults travelling with their children. This new trend was partly driven by the recent reduction in the number of children deported from the US. For a one-point reduction in the number of children deported from the US to Guatemalan municipalities, there was an increase of nearly 14 in the number of crossings made by adult males leaving from Guatemala for Mexico; and nearly 0.5 additional crossings made by male adults travelling with their children. However, the surge of emigrants travelling with their children was also driven by the acute economic shock that Guatemala experienced during the pandemic. During this period, air pollution in the analysed Guatemalan municipalities fell by 4%, night light per capita fell by 15%, and homicide rates fell by 40%. Unlike in previous years, emigrants are fleeing poverty rather than violence. Our findings suggest that a reduction in violence alone will not be sufficient to reduce emigration flows from Central America, but that economic recovery is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxana Gutierrez-Romero & Nayeli Salgado, 2022. "New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement," Working Papers 108, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgs:wpaper:108
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    File URL: http://cgr.sbm.qmul.ac.uk/CGRWP108.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2014. "On the Intended and Unintended Consequences of Enhanced U.S. Border and Interior Immigration Enforcement: Evidence From Mexican Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2255-2279, December.
    2. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo & Thitima Puttitanun, 2015. "Immigration Enforcement, Parent–Child Separations, and Intent to Remigrate by Central American Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1825-1851, December.
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    5. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
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    7. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Zahid Yousaf & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Saad M. Alotaibi & Ahmad Kabbani & Khalid Zaman, 2020. "Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: two-step GMM estimates," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
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    9. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2014. "On the Intended and Unintended Consequences of Enhanced Border and Interior Immigration Enforcement: Evidence from Deportees," IZA Discussion Papers 8458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Fernanda Martínez Flores, 2020. "The Effects of Enhanced Enforcement at Mexico’s Southern Border: Evidence From Central American Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1597-1623, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roxana Guti'errez-Romero, 2022. "Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico," Papers 2212.12796, arXiv.org.
    2. Roxana Gutierrez-Romero, 2022. "Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico," Working Papers 107, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; local economy; migration enforcement; Central America; pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

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