[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cgr/cgsser/02-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuing high technology growth firms

Author

Listed:
  • Soenke Sievers

    (University of Cologne)

  • Jan Klobucnik

    (CGS, University of Cologne)

Abstract
For the valuation of fast growing innovative firms Schwartz and Moon (2000, 2001) develop a fundamentals based valuation model where key parameters, such as revenues and expenses, follow stochastic processes. Guided by economic theory, this paper tests this model on a sample of around 30,000 technology firm quarter observations from 1992 to 2009 using realized accounting data and benchmark it against the traditional Enterprise Value-Sales Multiple. Our results show that the Schwartz-Moon model is on average nearly as accurate as the multiple approach, while it is even more accurate in certain industries such as pharmaceutical and computer firms. Most importantly, the Schwartz-Moon model shows the ability to indicate severe market over- or undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Soenke Sievers & Jan Klobucnik, 2011. "Valuing high technology growth firms," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 02-07, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgr:cgsser:02-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cgs.uni-koeln.de/fileadmin/wiso_fak/cgs/pdf/working_paper/cgswp_02-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhart, Allan C., 2001. "Comparable firms and the precision of equity valuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1367-1400, July.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Ana Simpson, 2010. ""Discussion of" The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3-4), pages 322-331.
    4. Eli Bartov & Partha Mohanram & Chandrakanth Seethamraju, 2002. "Valuation of Internet Stocks—An IPO Perspective," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 321-346, May.
    5. Cumming, Douglas J. & MacIntosh, Jeffrey G., 2003. "A cross-country comparison of full and partial venture capital exits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 511-548, March.
    6. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    7. Richard G. Sloan, 2002. "Discussion of Who Is My Peer? A Valuation‐Based Approach to the Selection of Comparable Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 441-444, May.
    8. Luigi Zingales, 2000. "In Search of New Foundations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1623-1653, August.
    9. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    10. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3-4), pages 291-321.
    11. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee, 2002. "Who Is My Peer? A Valuation‐Based Approach to the Selection of Comparable Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 407-439, May.
    12. Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 637-657, July.
    13. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-1093, September.
    14. Jerker Denrell, 2004. "Random Walks and Sustained Competitive Advantage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 922-934, July.
    15. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
    16. Alford, Aw, 1992. "The Effect Of The Set Of Comparable Firms On The Accuracy Of The Price Earnings Valuation Method," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 94-108.
    17. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Buskirk, Andrew Van, 2003. "Market valuations in the New Economy: an investigation of what has changed," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 43-67, January.
    18. Inderst, Roman & Muller, Holger M., 2004. "The effect of capital market characteristics on the value of start-up firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 319-356, May.
    19. Russell Lundholm & Terry O'Keefe, 2001. "Reconciling Value Estimates from the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Residual Income Model," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 311-335, June.
    20. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2010. "The Relevance of Accounting Information in a Stock Market Bubble: Evidence from Internet IPOs," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3‐4), pages 291-321, April.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    23. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    24. Francis, J & Olsson, P & Oswald, DR, 2000. "Comparing the accuracy and explainability of dividend, free cash flow, and abnormal earnings equity value estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 45-70.
    25. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
    26. Jing Liu & Doron Nissim & Jacob Thomas, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, March.
    27. Trueman, B & Wong, MHF & Zhang, XJ, 2000. "The eyeballs have it: Searching for the value in internet stocks," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 137-162.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Cumming, Douglas & Fleming, Grant & Suchard, Jo-Ann, 2005. "Venture capitalist value-added activities, fundraising and drawdowns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-331, February.
    30. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 321-321.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    2. Peter Roosenboom, 2007. "How Do Underwriters Value Initial Public Offerings? An Empirical Analysis of the French IPO Market," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    3. Soenke Sievers & Christopher F. Mokwa & Georg Keienburg, 2012. "The Relevance of Financial versus Non-Financial Information for the Valuation of Venture Capital-Backed Firms," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 467-511, September.
    4. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    5. Elnathan, Dan & Gavious, Ilanit & Hauser, Shmuel, 2010. "An analysis of private versus public firm valuations and the contribution of financial experts," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 387-412, December.
    6. Marcel Ausloos, 2020. "Valuation Models Applied to Value-Based Management—Application to the Case of UK Companies with Problems," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Dittmann, I. & Maug, E.G., 2006. "Valuation Biases, Error Measures, and the Conglomerate Discount," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-011-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    8. Yanfu Li, 2019. "Improving Analyst Target Price Performance Through Enhanced Valuation Techniques," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12.
    9. Aharon, David Y. & Gavious, Ilanit & Yosef, Rami, 2010. "Stock market bubble effects on mergers and acquisitions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 456-470, November.
    10. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    11. Waleed Khalid & Kashif Ur Rehman & Muhammad Kashif, 2019. "The Impact of Merger and Acquisition Firms on Stock Market Bubble," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 335-342, March.
    12. Wen-Shiung Lee, 2013. "Merger and acquisition evaluation and decision making model," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(15-16), pages 1473-1494, December.
    13. WS Nel, 2015. "An Optimal Peer Group Selection Strategy for Multiples-Based Modelling in the South African Equity Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(3), pages 30-46.
    14. Frank Asche & Bård Misund, 2016. "Who’s a major? A novel approach to peer group selection: Empirical evidence from oil and gas companies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1264538-126, December.
    15. Dittmann, Ingolf & Weiner, Christian, 2005. "Selecting comparables for the valuation of European firms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Skočir, Matevž & Lončarski, Igor, 2024. "On the importance of asset pricing factors in the relative valuation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    18. Francesco Bavagnoli & Giangiacomo Buzzoni & Corrado Mandirola & Ernesto Salinelli, 2022. "Exploring market multiples accuracy for professional practices: sales is the value anchor but profitability and location matter too," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 26(4), pages 1409-1442, December.
    19. José Couto & Paula Brito & António Cerqueira, 2017. "The Method of Market Multiples on the Valuation of Companies: A Multivariate Approach," FEP Working Papers 586, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    20. Imam, Shahed & Chan, Jacky & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Equity valuation models and target price accuracy in Europe: Evidence from equity reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 9-19.
    21. Weiner, Christian, 2005. "The impact of industry classification schemes on financial research," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Schwartz-Moon model; market mispricing; empirical test; company valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cgr:cgsser:02-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Kusterer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cgkoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.