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Railways and the European Fertility Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Ciccarelli, Carlo

    (University of Rome Tor Vegata)

  • Fenske, James

    (University of Warwick and CAGE)

  • Martí Henneberg, Jordi

    (Universitat de Lleida)

Abstract
We show that the spread of the railway network slowed the decline of fertility in Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We construct novel data on market access across sub-national regions in Europe and use both a panel fixed effects approach and an instrumental variables strategy that leverages variation in market access stemming from access to distant markets. We find that greater market access predicts higher fertility, with a standardized magnitude of 0.14. Consistent with an interpretation that market access increased fertility by raising incomes relative to the returns to child quality and the opportunity cost of childbearing, we show that our results are driven by locations that achieved higher levels of income per capita despite lagging in human capital and female labor force participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenske, James & Martí Henneberg, Jordi, 2023. "Railways and the European Fertility Transition," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 686, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:686
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    References listed on IDEAS

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