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States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD

Author

Listed:
  • Shuo, Chen

    (Fudan University, China)

  • Ma, Debin

    (Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan and LSE, UK)

Abstract
We examine the long-term pattern of state formation and the mythical historical Chinese unity under one single political regime based on the compilation of a large geocoded annual data series of political regimes and incidences of warfare between 221 BC and 1911 AD. By classifying our data sets into two types of regimes - agrarian and nomadic – and three types of warfare– agrarian/nomadic, agrarian/agrarian and internal rebellions – and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that nomadic-agrarian warfare and internal rebellion strengthens unification but agrarian/agrarian warfare entrenches fragmentation. Our research highlights the combination of China’s precocious ideology of a single unified ruler, environmental circumscription on the easternmost end of Eurasia and persistent agrarian-nomadic warfare as the driving force behind China’s eventual unity. We further discuss the long-run implications of Chinese unity on economic performance in a global context.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuo, Chen & Ma, Debin, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 505, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:505
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp505.2020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Agrarian-nomadic warfare; China; country size; state formation; warfare JEL Classification:;
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