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Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?

Author

Listed:
  • Alabrese, Eleonora

    (University of Warwick)

  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick and CAGE)

Abstract
Using estimates of support for Leave across UK local authority areas constructed from a comprehensive 20,000 strong survey, we show that both the level and the geographic variation capturing differential degrees of support for Leave have changed significantly since the 2016 EU referendum. A lot of area characteristics, many of which were previously associated with higher levels of support for Leave, are now significant correlates capturing a swing towards Remain. They include, for example, the degree to which local authorities receive transfers from the EU or the extent to which their economies rely on trade with the EU, along with past electoral support for UKIP (and the BNP) and exposure to immigration from Eastern Europe. Lastly, exposure to austerity since 2010 is among the strongest individual correlates weakening the support for Leave. The evidence is consistent with the argument that the small margin of victory of Leave in 2016 was, to a significant extent, carried by protest voters, who used the EU referendum to voice their discontent with domestic social and economic developments, particularly, austerity. Lastly, we present some evidence suggesting that the UK public, even in Leave supporting areas, would be much more willing to make compromises on free movement and aspects of single market membership compared to what appears to be the UK governments negotiation objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Alabrese, Eleonora & Fetzer, Thiemo, 2018. "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 394, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:394
    as

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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/394-2018_fetzer.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alabrese, Eleonora & Becker, Sascha O. & Fetzer, Thiemo & Novy, Dennis, 2019. "Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 132-150.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro C. L. Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Security Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2275-2308, July.
    3. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    4. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Hanretty, Chris & Lauderdale, Benjamin E. & Vivyan, Nick, 2018. "Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 571-591, July.
    6. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Introduction to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters, in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, Princeton University Press.
    7. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    8. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2018:i:4:p:50000000000852 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. SaschaBecker & ThiemoFetzer & DennisNovy & Sascha O.Becker, 2018. "Who Voted for Brexit?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 03-05, January.
    10. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Power and Plenty: Trade, War and the World Economy in the Second Millennium (Preface)," Trinity Economics Papers tep0107, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Sascha Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy & Sascha O. Becker, 2017. "Who Voted for Brexit?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 03-05, December.
    12. Liberini, Federica & Oswald, Andrew J & Proto, Eugenio & Redoano, Michela, 2017. "Was Brexit Caused by the Unhappy and the Old?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 342, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & Mari, Rebecca & Thwaites, Gregory, 2018. "Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 13288, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Preface to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters, in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, Princeton University Press.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fetzer, Thiemo & Sen, Srinjoy & Souza, Pedro CL, 2019. "Housing insecurity, homelessness and populism: Evidence from the UK," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 444, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Nils Braakmann, 2021. "Immigration Status Uncertainty and Mental Health—Evidence from Brexit," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 521-548, October.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2019. "The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Pedro Bordalo & Giovanni Burro & Katherine B. Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid," NBER Working Papers 30353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pedro Bordalo & Giovanni Burro & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs," Working Papers 701, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Nicholas Crafts, 2019. "The Fall in Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: A Much Bigger Estimate for the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 625-635, December.
    7. Sasso, Greg & Morelli, Massimo, 2021. "Bureaucrats under Populism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Stephen Clark, 2020. "Who voted for a No Deal Brexit? A Composition Model of Great Britains 2019 European Parliamentary Elections," Papers 2001.06548, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; protest voting; globalization; European Union JEL Classification: D72; F5; F6; H3; H5;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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