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Estimating Time-Varying Networks for High-Dimensional Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, J.
  • Li, D.
  • Li, Y.
  • Linton, O. B.
Abstract
We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method with time-varying weighted group LASSO to jointly estimate the transition matrices and identify their significant entries, and a time-varying CLIME method to estimate the precision matrices. The estimated transition and precision matrices are then used to determine the time-varying network structures. Under some mild conditions, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimates including the consistency and oracle properties. In addition, we extend the methodology and theory to cover highly-correlated large-scale time series, for which the sparsity assumption becomes invalid and we allow for common factors before estimating the factor-adjusted time-varying networks. We provide extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a large U.S. macroeconomic dataset to illustrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, J. & Li, D. & Li, Y. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Estimating Time-Varying Networks for High-Dimensional Time Series," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2231, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camjip:2231
    Note: obl20
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiahua Chen & Zehua Chen, 2008. "Extended Bayesian information criteria for model selection with large model spaces," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(3), pages 759-771.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Callot, Laurent, 2015. "Oracle inequalities for high dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 325-344.
    4. Cheng, Ming-Yen & Zhang, Wenyang & Chen, Lu-Hung, 2009. "Statistical Estimation in Generalized Multiparameter Likelihood Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1179-1191.
    5. Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2017. "On time-varying factor models: Estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 84-101.
    6. Yingying Fan & Cheng Yong Tang, 2013. "Tuning parameter selection in high dimensional penalized likelihood," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(3), pages 531-552, June.
    7. Cai, Tony & Liu, Weidong & Luo, Xi, 2011. "A Constrained â„“1 Minimization Approach to Sparse Precision Matrix Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 594-607.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Degui Li & Bin Peng & Songqiao Tang & Weibiao Wu, 2023. "Inference of Grouped Time-Varying Network Vector Autoregression Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Degui Li & Bin Peng & Songqiao Tang & Weibiao Wu, 2023. "Estimation of Grouped Time-Varying Network Vector Autoregression Models," Papers 2303.10117, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CLIME; Factor model; Granger causality; lasso; local linear smoothing; partial correlation; time-varying network; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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