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A Reason for Unreason: Returns-Based Beliefs in Game Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Velu, C.
  • Iyer, S.
  • Gair, J.R.
Abstract
Players cooperate in experiments more than game theory would predict. We introduce the ‘returns-based beliefs’ approach: the expected returns of a particular strategy in proportion to total expected returns of all strategies. Using a decision analytic solution concept, Luce’s (1959) probabilistic choice model, and ‘hyperpriors’ for ambiguity in players’ cooperability, our approach explains empirical observations in various classes of games including the Prisoner’s and Traveler’s Dilemmas. Testing the closeness of fit of our model on Selten and Chmura (2008) data for completely mixed 2 × 2 games shows that with loss aversion, returns-based beliefs explain the data better than other equilibrium concepts.

Suggested Citation

  • Velu, C. & Iyer, S. & Gair, J.R., 2010. "A Reason for Unreason: Returns-Based Beliefs in Game Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rationality; Subjective Probabilities; Returns-Based Beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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