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Do Security Measures Displace Crime? Theory and Evidence from Italian Bank Robberies

Author

Listed:
  • Vikram Maheshri
  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni
Abstract
Security measures intended to deter crime may unwittingly displace it to neighboring areas, but evidence of displacement is scarce. We exploit precise information on the timing and locations of all bank robberies and security guard hirings and firings in Italy over a 10-year period to estimate the deterrence and displacement effects of guards. We find that hiring a security guard lowers the likelihood that a bank is robbed by 35-40 percent, though over half of this reduction is immediately displaced to nearby banks that are unguarded. A simple theoretical model of displacement reveals ambiguity in policies to mitigate these spillovers. Our findings suggest that policies that restrict the use of guards in sparse, rural markets and that require the use of guards in dense, urban markets could be socially beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikram Maheshri & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2018. "Do Security Measures Displace Crime? Theory and Evidence from Italian Bank Robberies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 579, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Chalfin & Benjamin Hansen & Rachel Ryley, 2019. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime Victimization," NBER Working Papers 26051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deterrence; displacement; spillover; policing; bank security guards.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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