[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bzn/wpaper/bemps61.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contagion between Real Estate and Financial Markets: A Bayesian Quantile-on-Quantile Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (University of Padova, Italy)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    (Free University of Bolzano‐Bozen, Italy and BI Norwegian Business School)

Abstract
We study contagion between REITs and the equity market in the U.S. over four subsamples covering January, 2003 to December, 2017, by using Bayesian nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regressions with heteroskedasticity. We find that the spillovers from the REITs on to the equity market has varied over time across the four sub-samples, though similarity is observed between the first and the last sub-samples. Further, barring the extreme ends of the two markets, contagion from REITs upon the stock market went down during the global financial crisis relative to the pre-crisis period, with the spillover picking-up during the European sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Caporin & Rangan Gupta & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Contagion between Real Estate and Financial Markets: A Bayesian Quantile-on-Quantile Approach," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS61, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    • Handle: RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibz.it/bemps61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
    3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-235, April.
    5. Ming-Chu Chiang & Tien Foo Sing & I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "Spillover Risks in REITs and other Asset Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 579-604, May.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2018. "Is wine a good choice for investment?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 171-183.
    7. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    8. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2015. "Contagion Channels between Real Estate and Financial Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 101-138, March.
    9. Tsai, I-Chun, 2015. "Dynamic information transfer in the United States housing and stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 215-230.
    10. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    11. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Wei, D.C.M., 2009. "Bayesian causal effects in quantiles: Accounting for heteroscedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1993-2007, April.
    12. Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2002. "Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 263-291.
    14. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    15. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    16. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 793-813, December.
    17. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
    18. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    19. Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-198, April.
    20. Zhijie Xiao & Roger Koenker, 2009. "Conditional Quantile Estimation for GARCH Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 725, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    22. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    23. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
    24. Martin Hoesli & Jon Lekander & Witold Witkiewicz, 2004. "New International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(2), pages 161-206.
    25. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So & Ming-Tien Chen, 2005. "A Bayesian threshold nonlinearity test for financial time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 61-75.
    26. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    27. Damianov, Damian S. & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2018. "On the transmission of spillover risks between the housing market, the mortgage and equity REITs markets, and the stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 193-200.
    28. Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long‐Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153, March.
    29. Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Tsangyao & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "The co-movement and causality between the U.S. housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-233.
    30. Fry, Renée & Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin, 2010. "A New Class of Tests of Contagion With Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 423-437.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin J., 2023. "On the connection between international REITs and oil markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2024. "Is geopolitical oil price uncertainty forcing the world to use energy more efficiently? Evidence from advanced statistical methods," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 908-919.
    3. Zheng Zheng Li & Chi-Wei Su, 2023. "How does real estate market react to the iron ore boom in Australian capital cities?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(2), pages 517-537, October.
    4. Wen Chang, Hao & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "How oil price and exchange rate affect stock price in China using Bayesian Quantile_on_Quantile with GARCH approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2024. "High-Frequency Contagion between Aggregate and Regional Housing Markets of the United States with Financial Assets: Evidence from Multichannel Tests," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 253-276, August.
    6. Asima Siddique & Ghulam Mujtaba Kayani & Saira Ashfaq, 2021. "Does Heterogeneity in COVID-19 News Affect Asset Market? Monte-Carlo Simulation Based Wavelet Transform," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Kola Ijasan & Peterson Owusu Junior & George Tweneboah & Tunbosun Oyedokun & Anokye M. Adam, 2021. "Analysing the relationship between global REITs and exchange rates: Fresh evidence from frequency-based quantile regressions," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 58-91, September.
    8. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender, 2024. "Relationship between real estate tokens and other asset classes: Evidence from quantile connectedness approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Walid Mensi & Zhuhua Jiang & Xuan Vinh Vo & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility transmission and hedging strategies among REIT, stock, and oil markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 597-615, December.
    11. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2020. "Contagion effects and risk transmission channels in the housing, stock, interest rate and currency markets: An Empirical Study in China and the U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang, 2019. "Contagion between Stock and Real Estate Markets: International Evidence from a Local Gaussian Correlation Approach," Working Papers 201917, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    3. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Nonlinear contagion between stock and real estate markets: International evidence from a local Gaussian correlation approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2089-2109, April.
    4. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    5. Kohonen, Anssi, 2014. "Transmission of government default risk in the eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-85.
    6. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    7. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    8. Kim Hiang Liow & Qing Ye, 2018. "Regime dependent volatilities and correlation in international securitized real estate markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 457-487, August.
    9. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
    11. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    12. Giampaolo Gabbi & Alesia Kalbaska & Alessandro Vercelli, 2014. "Factors generating and transmitting the financial crisis: The role of incentives: securitization and contagion," Working papers wpaper56, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    13. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    14. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    15. Lin Mi & Allan Hodgson, 2018. "Real estate's information and volatility links with stock, bond and money markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 465-491, November.
    16. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    17. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    18. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    19. Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2017. "Time varying contagion in EMU government bond spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 72-91.
    20. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2024. "High-Frequency Contagion between Aggregate and Regional Housing Markets of the United States with Financial Assets: Evidence from Multichannel Tests," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 253-276, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Real Estate Market; Stock Market; Quantile-on-Quantile Model; Bayesian Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: F. Marta L. Di Lascio or Alessandro Fedele (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubzit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.