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EU-US Trade Post-Trump Perspectives: TTIP Aspects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Andre Jungmittag

    (Economics and Quantitative Methods at the Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences)

  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract
The international economic debate on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has focused mainly on trade induced real income gains while the FDI related and innovation induced benefits have been largely neglected, although the EU and the US are leading FDI host countries and FDI source countries. Moreover, from a theoretical perspective a knowledge production function has to be considered in order to analyze FDI and innovation dynamics - and this can then be linked to output and economic growth, respectively. It is argued that such a Schumpeterian approach for an open economy is needed to understand deep integration dynamics while the standard CGE model used by Francois et al (2013) leads to an underestimation of deep integration projects such as TTIP. The panel data estimation of knowledge production functions for 20 EU countries between 2002-2012 shows clear empirical evidence that a rise of the number of researchers and of the FDI stock-GDP ratio (or related variables) will raise patent applications. Additionally, a higher per capita income - that could reflect trade related real income gains in the context of TTIP - also contributes to new knowledge and a fortiori to higher GDP. Time series data analysis for Germany indicates additionally that FDI induced higher innovation dynamics will raise output - combining trade benefits and FDI/innovation related real income gains plus transatlantic macroeconomic interdependency effects a real income gain of nearly 2% should be expected for Germany (and the EU). As the Trump Administration is focusing on bilateralism, the US is essentially renouncing a considerable output increase and opportunities to improve its current account; instead the Trump Administration has adopted a policy of protectionism which is likely to undermine trade dynamics and economic growth. In the long run, transatlantic trade perspectives could improve.

Suggested Citation

  • Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2019. "EU-US Trade Post-Trump Perspectives: TTIP Aspects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation," EIIW Discussion paper disbei264, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    2. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    3. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 563-634, July.
    4. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Corona World Recession and Health System Crisis: Shocks Not Understood So Far," EIIW Discussion paper disbei273, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Andre Jungmittag & Robert Marschinski, 2023. "Service trade restrictiveness and foreign direct investment—Evidence from greenfield FDI in business services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1711-1758, June.
    6. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    7. Juan Dempere & Muhammad Qamar & Hesham Allam & Sabir Malik, 2023. "The Impact of Innovation on Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Self-Employment: A Global Perspective," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knowledge production function; Innovation; FDI; TTIP; Empirical Analysis; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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