[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bri/uobdis/15-658.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Aid and Domestic Absorption

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Temple
  • Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Abstract
This paper introduces a new ‘supply-push’ instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption, investment, imports and exports to GDP. We cannot reject the hypothesis that aid is fully absorbed rather than used to build foreign reserves or exiting as capital flight, nor do we find evidence of Dutch Disease effects. Aid leads to higher consumption, while the evidence that it promotes investment is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Temple & Nicolas Van de Sijpe, 2015. "Foreign Aid and Domestic Absorption," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/658, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 22 May 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:15/658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/media/workingpapers/working_papers/pdffiles/dp15658.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roland Hodler & Paul Raschky, 2010. "Foreign Aid and Enlightened Leaders," Monash Economics Working Papers 54-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, 2013. "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 436-448, May.
    3. Gabriela V. Cohen Freue & Hernan Ortiz-Molina & Ruben H. Zamar, 2013. "A Natural Robustification of the Ordinary Instrumental Variables Estimator," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, September.
    4. Alexandra Jarotschkin & Aart Kraay, 2016. "Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(2), pages 217-238, June.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    7. Kazuhiko Hayakawa & Vanessa Smith & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Transformed Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Short Dynamic Panel Data Models with interactive effects," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1412, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. David Roodman, 2007. "Macro Aid Effectiveness Research: A Guide for the Perplexed," Working Papers 135, Center for Global Development.
    9. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22vv42pfks8jbb5qstg53r5mfl is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Eric Werker & Faisal Z. Ahmed & Charles Cohen, 2009. "How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 225-244, July.
    13. Brock, Philip L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1994. "The Dependent-Economy Model with Both Traded and Nontraded Capital Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 306-325, October.
    14. David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
    15. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    16. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    17. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, April.
    18. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Ummul Hasanath Ruthbah, 2008. "Where Did All the Aid Go? An Empirical Analysis of Absorption and Spending," IMF Working Papers 2008/034, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    20. Valerie Cerra & Serpil Tekin & Stephen Turnovsky, 2009. "Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-181, April.
    21. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    22. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    23. William Easterly, 2007. "Are aid agencies improving? [‘Who gives foreign aid to whom and why?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(52), pages 634-678.
    24. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    25. Djankov, Simeon & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2009. "Aid with multiple personalities," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 217-229, June.
    26. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    27. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    28. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
    29. Knack, Stephen & Rahman, Aminur, 2007. "Donor fragmentation and bureaucratic quality in aid recipients," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 176-197, May.
    30. Steve Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2010. "Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1073-1099, November/.
    31. Kurt Annen & Luc Moers, 2017. "Donor Competition for Aid Impact, and Aid Fragmentation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 708-729.
    32. Philip L. Brock, 1996. "International Transfers, the Relative Price on Non-Traded Goods, and the Current Account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 163-180, February.
    33. Carter, Patrick & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Temple, Jonathan, 2015. "Dynamic aid allocation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-304.
    34. Tavares, Jose, 2003. "Does foreign aid corrupt?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-106, April.
    35. Sebastian Galiani & Stephen Knack & Lixin Colin Xu & Ben Zou, 2017. "The effect of aid on growth: evidence from a Quasi-experiment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    36. Nicolas Van de Sijpe, 2013. "Is Foreign Aid Fungible? Evidence from the Education and Health Sectors," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 320-356.
    37. Kent P. Kimbrough, 1986. "Foreign Aid and Optimal Fiscal Policy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 35-61, February.
    38. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy," IMF Working Papers 2010/065, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Gerdie Everaert & Tom De Groote, 2016. "Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Dynamic Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 428-463, March.
    40. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    41. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    42. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    43. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Weidner, Martin, 2017. "Dynamic Linear Panel Regression Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 158-195, February.
    44. C. S. Adam & S. A. O’Connell, 1999. "Aid, Taxation and Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 225-253, November.
    45. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    46. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    47. Harding, Matthew & Lamarche, Carlos, 2014. "Estimating and testing a quantile regression model with interactive effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 101-113.
    48. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    49. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2009-05, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    50. Temple, Jonathan & Van de Sijpe, Nicolas, 2017. "Foreign aid and domestic absorption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 431-443.
    51. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    52. Schmidt-Hebbel,Klaus & Servén,Luis (ed.), 1999. "The Economics of Saving and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632959, September.
    53. Imbs, Jean & Jondeau, Eric & Pelgrin, Florian, 2011. "Sectoral Phillips curves and the aggregate Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 328-344.
    54. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    55. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    56. Nancy Qian, 2015. "Making Progress on Foreign Aid," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 277-308, August.
    57. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    58. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    59. Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 6.
    60. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, December.
    61. Christopher Adam, 2013. "Dutch Disease and foreign aid," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    62. Richard A. Kronmal, 1993. "Spurious Correlation and the Fallacy of the Ratio Standard Revisited," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 379-392, May.
    63. Henrik Hansen & Derek Headey, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 877-896.
    64. Ben Jann, 2013. "Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates in Stata," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 1, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences, revised 18 Sep 2017.
    65. Ben Jann, 2013. "Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates in Stata," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 1, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences, revised 18 Sep 2017.
    66. Badi H. Baltagi & Jing Li, 2014. "Further Evidence On The Spatio‐Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 515-522, April.
    67. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    68. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    69. Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 491-509, August.
    70. Westerlund, Joakim & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "On the estimation and inference in factor-augmented panel regressions with correlated loadings," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 247-250.
    71. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    72. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    73. repec:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:491-509 is not listed on IDEAS
    74. Harding, Matthew & Lamarche, Carlos, 2011. "Least squares estimation of a panel data model with multifactor error structure and endogenous covariates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 197-199, June.
    75. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
    76. Adwoa A. Nsor-Ambala, 2015. "Foreign Transfers, Manufacturing Growth and the Dutch Disease Revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/663, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Chauvet, Lisa & Ehrhart, Hélène, 2018. "Aid and growth: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 461-477.
    3. Sebastian Galiani & Stephen Knack & Lixin Colin Xu & Ben Zou, 2017. "The effect of aid on growth: evidence from a Quasi-experiment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    5. Ignace De Vos & Gerdie Everaert, 2016. "Bias-Corrected Common Correlated Effects Pooled Estimation In Homogeneous Dynamic Panels," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/920, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Łukasz Marć, 2015. "The impact of aid on total government expenditures: New evidence on fungibility," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    8. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz, 2020. "Aid and growth: New evidence using an excludable instrument," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1162-1198, August.
    9. Philip Kerner & Torben Klarl & Tobias Wendler, 2021. "Green Technologies, Environmental Policy and Regional Growth," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2104, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    10. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Aid effectiveness and donor motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Carter, Patrick & Van de Sijpe, Nicolas & Calel, Raphael, 2021. "The elusive quest for additionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Aid and Income: Another Time-series Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-30.
    13. Łukasz Marć, 2017. "The Impact of Aid on Total Government Expenditures: New Evidence on Fungibility," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 627-663, August.
    14. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    15. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Aid and Income: Another Time-series Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-30.
    16. Kamguia, Brice & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Miamo, Clovis & Njangang, Henri, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 71-88.
    17. Juodis, Artūras & Karabiyik, Hande & Westerlund, Joakim, 2021. "On the robustness of the pooled CCE estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 325-348.
    18. Dierk Herzer, 2019. "The long-run effect of aid on health: evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(12), pages 1319-1338, March.
    19. George Kapetanios & Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2023. "Testing for correlation between the regressors and factor loadings in heterogeneous panels with interactive effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2611-2659, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Aid; Absorption; Dutch Disease.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:15/658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicky Jackson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sebriuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.