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The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Casey
  • Soheil Shayegh
  • Juan Moreno-Cruz
  • Martin Bunzl
  • Oded Galor
  • Ken Caldeira
Abstract
"We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behaviour. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economicdemographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damages decrease the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one specific mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic."

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2019-2
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    2. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    3. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    5. Bretschger, Lucas, 2020. "Malthus in the light of climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Reyer Gerlagh & Veronica Lupi & Marzio Galeotti, 2023. "Fertility and climate change," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 208-252, January.
    7. Anna Ngweye Owunebe & Professor Peter Terfa Ortese & Dr Joseph Audu Obida, 2024. "Percieved Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Social Competence and Depression among Tertiary Institution Students in Benue and Nasaraws States, Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(3), pages 2742-2750, March.
    8. Sáenz Pinzón, María Camila, 2024. "Instrumentos financieros y bienestar de los hogares rurales colombianos ante choques climáticos," Documentos CEDE 21191, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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