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Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J. Layton

    (Harvard Medical School)

  • Randall P. Ellis

    (Boston University)

  • Thomas G. McGuire

    (Harvard Medical School, NBER)

Abstract
Health insurance markets face two forms of adverse selection problems. On the demand side, adverse selection leads to plan price distortions and inefficient sorting of consumers across health plans. On the supply side, adverse selection creates incentives for insurers to inefficiently distort benefits to attract profitable enrollees. These problems can be addressed by features of health plan payment systems such as reinsurance, risk adjustment, and premium categories. In this paper, we develop Harberger-type measures of the efficiency consequences of price and benefit distortions under a given payment system. Our measures are valid, that is, based on explicit economic models of adverse selection. Our measures are complete, in that they are able to incorporate multiple features of plan payment systems. Finally, they are practical, in that they are based on the ex-ante data available to regulators and researchers during the design phase of payment system development, prior to observing actual insurer and consumer behavior. After developing the measures, we compare the performance of the payment system planned for implementation in the ACA Marketplaces in 2017 to several policy alternatives. We show that, in protecting against both types of selection problems, a payment system that incorporates reinsurance and prospective risk adjustment out-performs the planned payment system which includes only concurrent risk adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Layton & Randall P. Ellis & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-024, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2015-024
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Newhouse & Mary Beth Landrum & Mary Price & J. Michael McWilliams & John Hsu & Thomas G. McGuire, 2019. "The Comparative Advantage of Medicare Advantage," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 281-301, Spring.
    2. Michael Geruso, 2017. "Demand heterogeneity in insurance markets: Implications for equity and efficiency," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 929-975, November.
    3. Layton, Timothy J. & McGuire, Thomas G. & van Kleef, Richard C., 2018. "Deriving risk adjustment payment weights to maximize efficiency of health insurance markets," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 93-110.
    4. Schmid, Christian P.R. & Beck, Konstantin, 2016. "Re-insurance in the Swiss health insurance market: Fit, power, and balance," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(7), pages 848-855.
    5. Richard C. Kleef & Thomas G. McGuire & René C. J. A. Vliet & Wynand P. P. M. de Ven, 2017. "Improving risk equalization with constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(9), pages 1137-1156, December.
    6. Julie Shi, 2017. "Efficiency in Plan Choice with Risk Adjustment and Risk-Based Pricing in Health Insurance Exchanges," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(1), pages 79-113, January.
    7. Benjamin R. Handel & Jonathan T. Kolstad, 2021. "The Affordable Care Act After a Decade: Industrial Organization of the Insurance Exchanges," NBER Working Papers 29178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Richard van Kleef & Thomas McGuire & Rene van Vliet & Wynand van de Ven, 2015. "Improving Risk Equalization with Constrained Regression," NBER Working Papers 21570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Timothy J. Layton & Thomas G. McGuire, 2017. "Marketplace Plan Payment Options for Dealing with High-Cost Enrollees," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 165-191, Spring.
    10. Timothy Layton & Ellen J. Montz & Mark Shepard, 2017. "Health Plan Payment in U.S. Marketplaces: Regulated Competition with a Weak Mandate," NBER Working Papers 23444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Shuli Brammli-Greenberg & Jacob Glazer & Ruth Waitzberg, 2019. "Modest risk-sharing significantly reduces health plans’ incentives for service distortion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1359-1374, December.
    12. Sungchul Park & Anirban Basu, 2018. "Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 984-1010, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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