[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bog/wpaper/224.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal policy effects on non-performing loan formation

Author

Listed:
  • Vasilis Siakoulis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract
The fiscal situation in an economy may have a significant impact on the evolution of Non-Performing loans (NPLs). Austerity measures limit the loan servicing capacity of households and businesses (Perotti, 1996) whereas public borrowing accelerates markedly ahead of sovereign debt and banking crisis (Reinhart and Rogof, 2010). We empirically approach the effects of fiscal policy on NPLs employing a global data set for 31 countries covering a fifteen year period. We control also for other macroeconomic factors so as to quantify effects stemming from fiscal policy measures. We employ panel data methodologies since they provide us the means to deal with unobserved country heterogeneity when examining the determinants of asset quality. We also examine the one period ahead forecasting performance of our models in line with the cross sample panel data validating suggestions of Granger and Huang (1997). Our findings imply that, on a global level, when accounting for variables linked to macroeconomic performance such as GDP growth and the unemployment rate, fiscal pressure imposed on the economy, as measured by changes in the cyclically adjusted primary surplus, constitute important determinants of Non-Performing loan formation. Also our specifications provide efficient out-of-sample one-step ahead forecasts combining effectively unobserved country heterogeneity with observed macro and fiscal determinants. Our analysis could be of great interest to policymakers since the assessment of credit risk in the banking sector is a crucial element of macro-prudential policy. In this framework, besides strict macroeconomic performance metrics one should also take into account the fiscal framework when trying to explain the key drivers behind NPL evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilis Siakoulis, 2017. "Fiscal policy effects on non-performing loan formation," Working Papers 224, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2017224.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    2. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    4. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "Estimation in dynamic panel data models: improving on the performance of the standard GMM estimator," IFS Working Papers W00/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    10. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    11. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    12. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    14. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    15. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    17. Fofack, Hippolyte L., 2005. "Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3769, The World Bank.
    18. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Bholat, David & Lastra, Rosa & Markose, Sheri & Miglionico, Andrea & Sen, Kallol, 2016. "Non-performing loans: regulatory and accounting treatments of assets," Bank of England working papers 594, Bank of England.
    20. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Chatzivasiloglou, 2017. "The valuation of assets and liabilities of (re)insurance undertakings under solvency II," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 45, pages 63-90, July.
    2. Heather D Gibson & Georgia Pavlou, 2017. "Exporting and performance:evidence from Greek firms," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 45, pages 7-30, July.
    3. Ayrton Psaila & Jonathan Spiteri & Simon Grima, 2019. "The Impact of Non-Performing Loans on the Profitability of Listed Euro-Mediterranean Commercial Banks," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 166-196.
    4. Evangelos Charalambakis, 2017. "How did the Greek financial crisis impact on households? A comparison between the two waves of the HFCS," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 45, pages 31-45, July.
    5. Theodora Kosma & Evangelia Papapetrou & Georgia Pavlou & Christina Tsochatzi & Pinelopi Zioutou, 2017. "Labour market adjustment and labour market reforms in Greece during the crisis: findings from the third wave of the Wage Dynamics Survey," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 45, pages 47-62, July.
    6. Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasilis Siakoulis & Dionysios Mylonas & Aristotelis Klamargias, 2018. "A combined statistical framework for forecasting default rates of Greek Financial Institutions' credit portfolios," Working Papers 243, Bank of Greece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    3. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    4. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    5. Koju Laxmi & Abbas Ghulam & Wang Shouyang, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    6. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    7. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    8. Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Rimac Smiljanić, Ana & Aljinović, Zdravka, 2018. "Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 49-69.
    9. Gamze Öztürk DANIŞMAN, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Stability: A Financial Statement Analysis of Turkish Banks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    10. Radivojević, Nikola & Cvijanović, Drago & Sekulic, Dejan & Pavlovic, Dejana & Jovic, Srdjan & Maksimović, Goran, 2019. "Econometric model of non-performing loans determinants," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 481-488.
    11. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    12. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    13. Laxmi Koju & Ram Koju & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Does Banking Management Affect Credit Risk? Evidence from the Indian Banking System," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, July.
    14. Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Andreas Hadjixenophontos, 2017. "Empirical Determinants of the Non-Performing Loans in the Cypriot Banking System," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 1-1.
    15. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand," CUDARE Working Papers 121931, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    16. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    17. Vyshnevskyi, Iegor & Sohn, Wook, 2023. "Nonperforming loans and related lending: Evidence from Ukraine," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Vuslat Us, 2016. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector : What Has Changed After the Global Crisis?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1627, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Imad Jabbouri & Maryem Naili, 2020. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the MENA Region," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-33, February.
    20. Alandejani, Maha & Asutay, Mehmet, 2017. "Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 832-854.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Performing Loans; Fiscal Policy; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anastasios Rizos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.