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New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the “blocking” approach

Author

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  • Mogliani, M.
  • Brunhes-Lesage, V.
  • Darné, O.
  • Pluyaud, B.
Abstract
This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major changes have been implemented in the present version, such as the shift from a model based on factors to a model based on survey opinions, the explicit targeting of first-release GDP, and the use of the “blocking” approach to deal with mixed frequencies and missing observations. The selected monthly equations are consistent with the time frame of real-time forecasting exercises: the first month equation is dominated by data on expected evolution of the economic activity across the coincident quarter, while for the second and third month equations data on observed economic activity become more important and forward-looking information is progressively discarded. Finally, out-of-sample results suggest that the new MIBA model broadly outperforms several competing models, such as the previous version of MIBA and models based on alternative specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Mogliani, M. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Pluyaud, B., 2014. "New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the “blocking” approach," Working papers 473, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:473
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    3. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    4. Clément Bortoli & Stéphanie Combes & Thomas Renault, 2018. "Nowcasting GDP Growth by Reading the Newspapers," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 505-506, pages 17-33.
    5. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    6. Tomas Adam & Filip Novotny, 2018. "Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018/18, Czech National Bank.
    7. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gerardin Mathilde, & Ranvier Martial., 2021. "Enrichment of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey: lessons from textual analysis of business leaders’ comments," Working papers 821, Banque de France.
    9. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    10. Daniel Roash & Tanya Suhoy, 2019. "Sentiment Indicators Based on a Short Business Tendency Survey," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.11, Bank of Israel.
    11. E. Monnet & C. Thubin, 2017. "Construction crises and business cycle: consequences for GDP forecasts," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 39, february..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP nowcasting; Real-time data; Mixed-frequency data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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