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Límite de la Deuda Pública y Espacio Fiscal: Análisis para Colombia y Otros Mercados Emergentes

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Juan Manuel Julio-Román

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract
En este documento se analiza el límite de la deuda pública y el espacio fiscal para Colombia y otras economías emergentes, bajo el enfoque de la fatiga fiscal (Ghosh et. al., 2013). El estado de fatiga se presenta en situaciones de incrementos continuos de la deuda y del pago de los intereses, que llevan a que los esfuerzos del gobierno para generar superávits primarios se deterioren. El trabajo utiliza la técnica de los splines para estimar la reacción del gobierno a la dinámica de deuda y plantea una prima de riesgo endógena a su evolución. Las estimaciones se realizan con un panel desbalanceado de trece economías, seis de la región, para el periodo 1985–2016. Los resultados sugieren que el límite de la deuda pública de país se situaría en 56% del PIB y el espacio fiscal ascendería a 7 p.p. del producto, el cual luce estrecho especialmente por la sensibilidad de la deuda a los choques externos. Frente a otros países de la región, Chile cuenta con el mayor espacio fiscal, al tiempo que México y Ecuador, con endeudamientos cercanos al colombiano, disponen de menor espacio. **** ABSTRACT: This paper assess the public debt limit and fiscal space for Colombia and some emerging economies, under the fiscal fatigue approach (Ghosh et. al., 2013). The fatigue phenomenon occurs under situations of continuous increases of both debt and interest payments, which lead to government´s efforts to obtain primary surpluses to deteriorate. The paper uses the spline technique to estimate the government's reaction function to debt dynamics and proposes a sovereign risk premium endogenous to the level of indebtedness. Estimates carry out with an unbalanced panel of thirteen economies, six of them from Latin America, for the period 1985-2016. Results suggest that the limit of Colombian public debt would be 56% of GDP and that fiscal space would amount to 7 points of GDP, which looks so narrow due to the debt sensitivity to external shocks. In front to other countries, Chile has the largest fiscal space, while Mexico and Ecuador, with comparable indebtedness to the Colombian, have lower spaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2019. "Límite de la Deuda Pública y Espacio Fiscal: Análisis para Colombia y Otros Mercados Emergentes," Borradores de Economia 1076, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1076
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1076
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda; Sostenibilidad; política fiscal; balance primario; Debt; sustainability; fiscal policy; primary balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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