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Demanda por Reservas bajo Bandas Cambiarias

Author

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  • Alberto Carrasquilla
Abstract
Un país con política cambiaria que no sea de flotación pura, demanda reservas internacionales con múltiples propósitos, el principal siendo garantizar el flujo de pagos y evitar un derrumbe del sistema cambiario vigente. Por ejemplo, si la tasa de cambio es fija, las reservas sirven para ajustar macroeconómicamente las fluctuaciones de la balanza de pagos. En modelos convencionales, cuando la política fiscal es excesivamente expansionista y el tipo de cambio es fijo, los inversionistas internacionales saben que se avecina un derrumbe del sistema cambiario y tienen enormes incentivos para atacar la moneda, generando lo que se conoce como una crisis de la balanza de pagos. En otra familia de modelos los agentes incurren en ataques que se desligan de los determinantes fundamentales del tipo de cambio, llevándose a cabo lo que se conoce como una profecía autorealizada. En cualquier caso, debe haber un nivel R de las reservas internacionales el cual los agentes confían sea suficiente para defender el tipo de cambio, de tal forma que si el stock R cae por debajo de R atacan la moneda y tumban el sistema cambiario, forzando una devaluación que los enriquece. Por esta razón, es interesante estudiar el nivel de reservas que permite "manejar" las fluctuaciones usuales de los pagos, de tal forma que este incentivo puramente especulativo desaparezca. Aún mas, es relevante abrir la discusión al esquema de bandas cambiarias en el cual opera actualmente la economía colombiana. Este trabajo aborda el tema. En la sección II se presenta el modelo básico de bandas cambiarias a fin de ubicar la discusión. En la sección III se presenta el lado monetario de la economía y se introducen los incentivos para atacar la banda en función de las reservas observadas. En la parte IV se estiman algunos coeficientes que permiten examinar el tema en algunos casos concretos, incluyendo Colombia. Finalmente, se presentan las conclusiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Carrasquilla, 1995. "Demanda por Reservas bajo Bandas Cambiarias," Borradores de Economia 029, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:029
    DOI: 10.32468/be.29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Galindo, Arturo J. & Maloney, William F., 2002. "Second moments in speculative attack models: panel evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-129, January.
    2. Javier Gómez Restrepo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Bohórquez, 2013. "Assessing Reserve Adequacy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 781, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Camilo González & Luisa F. Silva & Carmiña O. Vargas & Andrés M. Velasco, 2013. "An exploration on interbank markets and the operational framework of monetary policy in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 10982, Banco de la Republica.

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