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The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo De Bonis

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Silvestrini

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract
In this paper we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough reconstruction of the key balance-sheet time series of Italian banks, considering all the main assets and liabilities over the last 150 years. We come to three main conclusions. First, while there was a close correlation between loans and deposits (relative to GDP) until the mid-1970s, over the last 30 years this link has become more tenuous, and the volume of loans has increased in relation to deposits. The banks have covered this �funding gap� mainly by issuing new debt securities. Second, the Italian financial cycle has a much longer duration than traditional business cycles. Third, taking into account the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend, an acceleration of credit preceded a banking crisis in 8 out of the 12 episodes listed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). A Logit regression confirms a positive association between the probability of a banking crisis and a previous acceleration of the credit-to-GDP gap. However, there were also periods - such as the early 1970s - in which the growth of the credit-to-GDP ratio was not followed by a banking crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2013. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 936, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_936_13
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    2. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    3. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    4. Kunovac, Davor & Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: A cross-country perspective," Discussion Papers 04/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 242-248.
    8. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
    9. Paolo Di Martino & Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2016. "International financial flows, domestic banks, and the economic development of the periphery: Italy, 1861-1913," Department of Economics 0104, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2022. "A long-term analysis of efficiency in the Italian banking system from 1861 to 2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 227-241.
    11. Malgorzata Porada - Rochon, 2020. "The Length of Financial Cycle and its Impact on Business Cycle in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1278-1290.
    12. Andrea Incerpi & Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2020. "Finance and Development in Italy, 1870-1913," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 1-95, September.
    13. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
    14. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "Banking Crises and Boom-Bust Dynamics: Evidence for Italy (1861-2016)," CESifo Working Paper Series 6972, CESifo.
    15. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "Banking crises and business cycle: evidence for Italy(1861-2016)," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 34-61, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking system; credit-to-GDP ratio; financial cycle; unobserved components.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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