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A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Albert Ando
  • Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract
The relationship between the demographic structure and the saving rate of a society is the reflection of the aggregation of the behaviour of heterogeneous households, differing from one another in the type of living arrangements and in the characteristics of their members. In order to contribute to the understanding of this relationship, we construct a dynamic micro model capable of simulating the demographic development of a population, including the creation, destruction, dimension and various other important characteristics of households and their members. The demographic model is then combined with a specification of the processes generating income, social security wealth, retirement and consumption behaviour of households, and applied to a data set derived from survey data on the Italian household sector. Simulations of the model are used to study the evolution of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation over the period 1994-2100. If fertility and mortality assumptions of recent official projections are adopted and marriage and divorce rates maintained at current levels, the dramatic ageing of the population and the marked decline in the share of population living in traditional households would lead, other things being equal, to a substantial decline in the aggregate saving rate. However, the reduction in the number of children per household and, above all, the decline in the ratio of social security wealth of households to disposable income as the effects of the recently introduced reforms begin to be felt act as offsetting factors. As a result, the aggregate saving rate increases over the initial 30 years of the simulation and moderately decreases thereafter, stabilizing slightly above the original level. Implications of changes in a number of key assumptions regarding the demographic evolution, productivity growth and individual behavioural responses are also analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Ando & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari, 2004. "A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 533, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_533_04
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2004/2004-0533/tema_533.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Polin, Veronica & Sartor, Nicola, 2009. "Family Intertemporal Fiscal Incidence: A new Methodology for Assessing Public Policies," MPRA Paper 25570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Irving Fisher Committee, 2007. "Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 26.
    4. Claudia Biancotti & Giovanni D'Alessio, 2007. "The use of micro-level data from the Bank of Italy's survey of household income and wealth: a focus on household finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 342-346, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    6. Alessandro Bucciol & Laura Cavalli & Igor Fedotenkov & Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Nicola Sartor & Alessandro Sommacal, 2014. "A large scale OLG model for France, Italy and Sweden: assessing the interpersonal and intrapersonal redistributive effects of public policies," Working Papers 07/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    7. Flavia Coda Moscarola & Margherita Borella, 2015. "The 2011 Pension Reform in Italy and its Effects on Current and Future Retirees," CeRP Working Papers 151, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    8. Tony Lawson, 2016. "How the Ageing Population Contributes to UK Economic Activity: A Microsimulation Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 497-518, November.
    9. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago & Marika Cioffi, 2017. "BIMic: the Bank of Italy microsimulation model for the Italian tax and benefit system," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 394, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic developments; family structure; consumption; saving; social security; micro simulation model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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