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Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio M. Conti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Nobili

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Federico M. Signoretti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract
We estimate a Bayesian VAR with a detailed characterization of the banking sector for Italy since the 1990s. We use conditional forecasting techniques to retrieve bank capital shocks related to regulatory and supervisory initiatives and quantify their impact on credit supply and economic activity. We study three episodes characterized by increased regulatory/supervisory pressure and large increases in the Tier 1 capital ratio (the discussion on the Basel III reform; the 2011 EBA stress test and capital exercise; and the ECB’s comprehensive assessment and the launch of the SSM). We find evidence of large and persistent shocks to bank capital in all three episodes, which had significant negative effects on loan supply and GDP. Our results are robust to taking account of possible instabilities in the estimated relationships. The analysis focuses on the potential short-run costs of the regulatory/supervisory initiatives and disregards the potentially much larger long-run benefits of high bank capitalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1199_18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers’ views," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Bednarek, Peter & Briukhova, Olga & Ongena, Steven & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2023. "Effects of bank capital requirements on lending by banks and non-bank financial institutions," Discussion Papers 26/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    6. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers’ views," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
    8. Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2022. "Examining macroprudential policy and its macroeconomic effects – Some new evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Ginette Eramo & Roberto Felici & Paolo Finaldi Russo & Federico Signoretti, 2018. "How slow is the recovery of loans to firms in Italy?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 469, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Salvatore Cardillo & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Guarino, 2021. "Main challenges and prospects for the European banking sector: a critical review of the ongoing debate," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 634, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank capital shocks; Bayesian VAR models; conditional forecasts; time variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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