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An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Sabina Marchetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Borin

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Francesco Paolo Conteduca

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giuseppe Ilardi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Piero Poletti

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Patrizio Pezzotti

    (Italian National Health Institute)

  • Antonino Bella

    (Italian National Health Institute)

  • Paola Stefanelli

    (Italian National Health Institute)

  • Flavia Riccardo

    (Italian National Health Institute)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Andrea Brandolini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Silvio Brusaferro

    (Italian National Health Institute)

Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be tailored to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the interdependence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic, mostly overlooked by existing epidemiological models. In our innovative approach, we instead develop a model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism, effective in Italy since November 2020, and allows us to track the historical evolution of both health outcomes and restrictions in the country. By focusing on the epidemic wave triggered by the onset of the Delta variant, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. This trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g. vaccination coverage), with less reactive mechanisms (e.g. those based on occupancy rates) becoming more advantageous in favourable contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabina Marchetti & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Giuseppe Ilardi & Giorgio Guzzetta & Piero Poletti & Patrizio Pezzotti & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Flavia Riccardo & Stefano, 2022. "An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_681_22
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2022-0681/QEF_681_22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    covid-19; epidemiological model; restrictions; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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