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Macroprudential FX Regulations: Sacrificing Small Firms for Stability?

Author

Listed:
  • María Alejandra Amado

    (Banco de España)

Abstract
Macroprudential FX regulation may reduce systemic risk; however, little is known about its unintended consequences. I propose a theoretical mechanism in which currency mismatch acts as a means for relaxing small firms’ borrowing constraints, and show that policies taxing dollar lending may increase financing disparities between small and large firms. To verify this empirically, I study the implementation of a macroprudential FX tax by the Central Bank of Peru. I construct a novel dataset that combines confidential credit register data with firm-level data on employment, sales, industry and geographic location for the universe of formally registered firms. I show that a 10% increase in bank exposure to the tax significantly increases disparities in the growth of total loans between small and large firms by 1.6 percentage points. When accounting for firms switching to soles financing from different banks, the effect on large firms’ debt is only compositional. Using a confidential dataset on the universe of FX derivative contracts, I show that firms that are mostly affected by the policy are not hedged through FX derivatives. Additional findings using survey data suggest that this policy has potential heterogeneous implications for firms’ real outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • María Alejandra Amado, 2022. "Macroprudential FX Regulations: Sacrificing Small Firms for Stability?," Working Papers 2236, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2236
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2236e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential FX regulations; currency mismatch; small firms; FX derivatives; emerging markets; borrowing constraints; bank lending channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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