[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1739.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the latin monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Jacopo Timini

    (Banco de España)

Abstract
The Latin Monetary Union (LMU) agreement signed in December 1865 by France, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland standardised gold and silver coinage in member countries and allowed free circulation of national coins in the Union. In his seminal study, Flandreau (2000) found no evidence of an overall positive effect of the LMU on trade. In this paper, I estimate the effects of this currency agreement on trade. In my gravity model I explicitly take into account the changing conditions in the international environment that affected the LMU’s underlying economic foundations (i.e. the limits on silver coinage agreed upon in 1874) and its rules (i.e. the “liquidation clause” of 1885). I also test the existence of heterogeneous effects on bilateral trade within the LMU. In line with Flandreau, I find no significant LMU trade effects. However, I find support for the hypothesis that the LMU had significant trade effects for the period 1865-1874. These effects were nonetheless concentrated in trade flows between France and the rest of the LMU members, following a hub-and-spokes structure. Moreover, I find evidence for the existence of an 1874 “LMU-wide” structural break, which affected the course of trade flows within the Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacopo Timini, 2017. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the latin monetary union," Working Papers 1739, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/17/Fich/dt1739e.pdf
    File Function: First version, November 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/645 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yang, Shanping & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN–China Free Trade Area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 138-151.
    3. Marc Flandreau, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865-1871," Post-Print hal-03416539, HAL.
    4. Peter H. Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2013. "The Pure Effects of European Integration on Intra-EU Core and Periphery Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 701-712, June.
    5. Ms. Giorgia Albertin, 2008. "Trade Effects of Currency Unions: Do Economic Dissimilarities Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2008/249, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Marc Flandreau, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865-1871," Post-Print hal-03416540, HAL.
    7. Huberman, Michael & Meissner, Christopher M. & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2017. "Technology and Geography in the Second Industrial Revolution: New Evidence from the Margins of Trade," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 39-89, March.
    8. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    9. Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2015. "What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 993-1029, December.
    10. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
    11. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    12. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact?," Post-Print hal-03416381, HAL.
    13. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    14. Antonio Tena Junguito, 1992. "Las estadísticas históricas del comercio internacional: fiabilidad y comparabilidad," Estudios de Historia Económica, Banco de España, number 24, November.
    15. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    16. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    17. Gowa, Joanne & Mansfield, Edward D., 1993. "Power Politics and International Trade," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 408-420, June.
    18. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    19. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Europe," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-00308756, HAL.
    20. Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870–1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 862-897, December.
    21. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    22. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard, 1880—1914," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 116-162.
    23. Markus Lampe, 2011. "Explaining nineteenth‐century bilateralism: economic and political determinants of the Cobden–Chevalier network," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(2), pages 644-668, May.
    24. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Le Cacheux & Marc Flandreau, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard, 1880-1913," Working Papers hal-01037858, HAL.
    25. Duvall, Raymond D., 1978. "Dependence and dependencia theory: notes toward precision of concept and argument," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 51-78, January.
    26. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Yung Chul & Wyplosz, Charles (ed.), 2008. "China, Asia, and the New World Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199235889.
    27. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    28. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    29. Gowa, Joanne & Hicks, Raymond, 2013. "Politics, Institutions, and Trade: Lessons of the Interwar Era," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 439-467, July.
    30. Lampe, Markus, 2009. "Effects of Bilateralism and the MFN Clause on International Trade: Evidence for the Cobden-Chevalier Network, 1860-1875," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1012-1040, December.
    31. Luca L. Einaudi, 2000. "From the franc to the ‘Europe’: the attempted transformation of the Latin Monetary Union into a European Monetary Union, 1865-1873," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 53(2), pages 284-308, May.
    32. Flandreau, Marc, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865–71," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 25-44, April.
    33. Marc Flandreau & Jacques Le Cacheux & Frédéric Zumer, 1998. "Stability without a pact?," Post-Print hal-03416381, HAL.
    34. Marc Flandreau, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-1880," Post-Print hal-03416270, HAL.
    35. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Yung Chul & Wyplosz, Charles (ed.), 2008. "China, Asia, and the New World Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199235896.
    36. Einaudi, Luca, 2001. "Money and Politics: European Monetary Unification and the International Gold Standard (1865-1873)," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199243662.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Jia Hou, 2020. "Revisiting the trade effects of the euro: data sources and various samples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2731-2777, December.
    3. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez & Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2020. "EMU and trade: A PPML re‐assessment with intra‐national trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2574-2599, October.
    4. Roger Vicquéry, 2021. "The Common Currency Effect on International Trade: Evidence from an Accidental Monetary Union," Working papers 856, Banque de France.
    5. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    6. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Chiaruttini, Maria Stella, 2020. "Banking integration and (under)development: A quantitative reassessment of the Italian financial divide (1814-74)," IBF Paper Series 03-20, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    8. Jacopo Timini & Nicola Cortinovis & Fernando López Vicente, 2020. "The heterogeneous effects of trade agreements with labor provisions (Updated March 2021)," Working Papers 2017, Banco de España, revised Mar 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    2. Christopher M. Meissner, 2002. "A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Flandreau, Marc, 2006. "The logic of compromise: Monetary bargaining in Austria-Hungary, 1867–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 3-33, April.
    4. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2020. "Pegxit pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2008. "Sui Generis EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 6642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Working Papers hal-01065006, HAL.
    12. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    14. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    16. William Miles, 2015. "Did the Classical Gold Standard Lead to Greater Price Level Convergence? A New Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 351-377, April.
    17. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    18. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España, revised Aug 2020.
    19. Lazaretou, Sophia, 2005. "The drachma, foreign creditors, and the international monetary system: tales of a currency during the 19th and the early 20th centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 202-236, April.
    20. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    21. Roger Vicquéry, 2021. "The Common Currency Effect on International Trade: Evidence from an Accidental Monetary Union," Working papers 856, Banque de France.
    22. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    23. Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "The Drachma, Foreign Creditors and the International Monetary System: Tales of a Currency during the 19th and the Early 20th Century," Working Papers 16, Bank of Greece.
    24. Hoffmann Andreas, 2013. "The Euro as a Proxy for the Classical Gold Standard? Government Debt Financing and Political Commitment in Historical Perspective," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 41-61, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; currency unions; Latin Monetary Union; gravity model; bimetallism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.