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Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?

Author

Listed:
  • Joan Paredes

    (European Central Bank)

  • Javier J. Pérez

    (Banco de España)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quirós

    (Banco de España, AIREF and CEPR)

Abstract
Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as published/announced by the government; (ii) incoming, observed data on the actual degree of implementation of ongoing plans. We formulate and estimate empirical models for a number of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) to show that government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post policy developments when policy changes significantly (even if past credibility is low) and when there is limited information about the implementation of plans (e.g. at the beginning of a fiscal year). In addition, our models are instrumental in unveiling the current course of policy in real time. Our approach complements a well-established branch of the literature that finds politically motivated biases in policy targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez-Quirós, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Working Papers 1508, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    2. Jose A Lopez & Kris James Mitchener, 2021. "Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I [Modeling and forecasting realized volatility]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 450-475.
    3. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.
    4. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claudio Columbano, 2022. "Measuring fiscal guidance transparency," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 261-296.
    6. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy credibility; fiscal policy; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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