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Informality, Labor Regulation, and the Business Cycle

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  • Leyva Gustavo
  • Urrutia Carlos
Abstract
We analyze the joint impact of employment protection and informality on macroeconomic volatility and the propagation of shocks in emerging economies. For this, we propose a small open economy business cycle model with frictional labor markets, labor regulation, and an informal sector, modeled as self-employment. The model is calibrated to the Mexican economy, in particular to business cycle moments for employment and informality obtained from our own calculations with the ENOE survey for the period 2005-2016. We show that international interest rate shocks, which affect specifically job creation in the formal sector, are key to obtain a counter-cyclical informality rate. In our model both the economy without an informal sector and the economy with informality but a lower burden of labor regulation feature higher volatility in employment but smaller fluctuations in TFP and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Leyva Gustavo & Urrutia Carlos, 2018. "Informality, Labor Regulation, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2018-19, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2018-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Colombo & Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Informality," IMF Working Papers 2022/082, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2021. "Job Finding and Separation Rates in an Economy with High Labor Informality," Research in Labor Economics, in: Workplace Productivity and Management Practices, volume 49, pages 277-302, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Unemployment and the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, number 978-3-030-96687-4, June.
    4. Gomez Ospina, Monica A., 2023. "Optimal monetary policy in developing countries: The role of informality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
    6. Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public expenditure multipliers and informality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    7. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2023. "Informal Labor Markets in Times of Pandemic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 158-185, January.
    9. Leyva Gustavo & Mora Israel, 2021. "How High (Low) are the Possibilities of Teleworking in Mexico?," Working Papers 2021-15, Banco de México.
    10. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    11. Alberola, Enrique & Urrutia, Carlos, 2020. "Does informality facilitate inflation stability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Ligita Gasparėnienė & Rita Remeikienė & Colin C. Williams, 2022. "Theorizing the Informal Economy," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Unemployment and the Informal Economy, chapter 0, pages 7-60, Springer.
    13. Zhaojun Sun, 2022. "Unregistered Employment, Lower Volatility of Unemployment Rate and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Ruy Lama & Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2022. "Labor Market Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 300-337, June.
    15. Boruchowicz, Cynthia & Parker, Susan W. & Robbins, Lindsay, 2022. "Time use of youth during a pandemic: Evidence from Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Cebreros Alfonso & Heffner-Rodríguez Aldo & Livas René & Puggioni Daniela, 2020. "Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2020-04, Banco de México.
    17. Horvath, Jaroslav & Yang, Guanyi, 2022. "Unemployment dynamics and informality in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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