[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Busch
  • David Domeij
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Rocio Madera
Abstract
This paper studies the business-cycle variation in higher-order (labor) income risk-that is, risks that are captured by moments higher than the variance of income changes. We examine the extent to which such risks can be smoothed within households or with government social insurance and tax policies. We use panel data from three countries that differ in many aspects relevant for our analysis: the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Our analysis has three main results. First, analyzing individual gross labor income, we document that skewness is procyclical and dispersion (variance) is flat and acyclical in Germany and Sweden, as was previously documented for the United States. The same patterns hold true for groups defined by education, gender, occupation, and public- versus private-sector jobs. Second, within-household smoothing appears to be not effective at mitigating business cycle fluctuations in skewness, and household- level income displays cyclical patterns that are very similar to individual income. Third, government tax and transfer programs blunt some of the largest declines in incomes, reducing procyclical fluctuations in skewness. The resulting welfare gain-through the lens of a structural model-amounts to 1.3% in consumption- equivalent terms for Sweden (for which we are able to perform this calculation). However, the remaining risk (in household disposable income) is still substantial: households are willing to pay 4.6% of their consumption to completely eliminate procyclical fluctuations in skewness.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2018. "Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance," Working Papers 1031, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1031.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sascha O. Becker & Ludger Woessmann, 2009. "Was Weber Wrong? A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 531-596.
    2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    3. David Card & Jörg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 967-1015.
    4. Fatih Guvenen, 2007. "Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 687-712, June.
    5. Assar Lindbeck & Sten Nyberg & Jörgen W. Weibull, 2003. "Social Norms and Welfare State Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 533-542, 04/05.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    7. Mark Koyama & Jean-Paul Carvalho, "undated". "Development and Religious Polarization: The Emergence of Reform and Ultra-Orthodox Judaism," Discussion Papers 11/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Alberto Bisin & Thierry Verdier, 2000. ""Beyond the Melting Pot": Cultural Transmission, Marriage, and the Evolution of Ethnic and Religious Traits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 955-988.
    9. MICHAEL McBRIDE, 2010. "Religious Market Competition in a Richer World," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 148-171, January.
    10. González, Libertad & Viitanen, Tarja K., 2009. "The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 127-138, February.
    11. Flavio Cunha & James Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 191-261, April.
    12. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    13. Dnes,Antony W. & Rowthorn,Robert (ed.), 2002. "The Law and Economics of Marriage and Divorce," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521809337, September.
    14. Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln & Dirk Krueger & Mathias Sommer, 2010. "Inequality Trends for Germany in the Last Two Decades: A Tale of Two Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 103-132, January.
    15. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Itay Saporta-Eksten, 2016. "Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 387-435, February.
    16. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
    17. Filipe Campante & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2013. "Does Religion Affect Economic Growth and Happiness? Evidence from Ramadan," CID Working Papers 274, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    18. Bisin, Alberto & Verdier, Thierry, 2001. "The Economics of Cultural Transmission and the Dynamics of Preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 298-319, April.
    19. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2007. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521871532, September.
    20. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
    21. Roland Bénabou & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2022. "Forbidden Fruits: The Political Economy of Science, Religion, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1785-1832.
    22. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    23. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2075-2126, July.
    24. Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August.
    25. Shin, Donggyun & Solon, Gary, 2011. "Trends in men's earnings volatility: What does the Panel Study of Income Dynamics show?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 973-982, August.
    26. Fatih Guvenen & Anthony A. Smith, 2014. "Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance From Economic Choices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2085-2129, November.
    27. Bayer, Christian & Juessen, Falko, 2012. "The life-cycle and the business-cycle of wage risk — Cross-country comparisons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 831-833.
    28. Iannaccone, Laurence R, 1992. "Sacrifice and Stigma: Reducing Free-Riding in Cults, Communes, and Other Collectives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 271-291, April.
    29. Skedinger, Per, 2007. "The Design and Effects of Collectively Agreed Minimum Wages: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 700, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    30. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1986. "The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-219, September.
    31. Orazio Attanasio & Hamish Low & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2005. "Female Labor Supply As Insurance Against Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 755-764, 04/05.
    32. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2007. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521871549, September.
    33. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2007. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521692106, September.
    34. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 415-460, February.
    35. repec:iab:iabfda:201309(en is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Eli Berman, 2000. "Sect, Subsidy, and Sacrifice: An Economist's View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 905-953.
    37. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2011. "Religiosity, human capital return and earnings in Canada," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(1/2), pages 55-80, December.
    38. Iourii Manovskii & Dmytro Hryshko & Moira Daly, 2015. "Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels," 2015 Meeting Papers 1395, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Raquel Fernández & Alessandra Fogli & Claudia Olivetti, 2004. "Mothers and Sons: Preference Formation and Female Labor Force Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1249-1299.
    40. Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Blundell,Richard & Newey,Whitney K. & Persson,Torsten (ed.), 2007. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521692090, September.
    42. Mikhail Golosov & Maxim Troshkin & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2016. "Redistribution and Social Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 359-386, February.
    43. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Pistaferri, 2016. "Consumption Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    2. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2023. "Recovering Latent Variables by Matching," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 118(541), pages 693-706, January.
    4. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Ronald Miranda, 2020. "The Behaviour of Social Transfers over the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence of Uruguay," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 25-54, June.
    6. Makoto Nakajima & Vladimir Smirnyagin, 2019. "Cyclical Labor Income Risk," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Spyridon Lazarakis & Jim Malley, 2019. "Cyclical income risk in Great Britain," CESifo Working Paper Series 7594, CESifo.
    10. Sebastian Graves, 2020. "Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1298, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2021. "Earnings Dynamics in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9117, CESifo.
    12. Pora, Pierre & Wilner, Lionel, 2020. "A decomposition of labor earnings growth: Recovering Gaussianity?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Muinelo-Gallo, Leonel, 2022. "Business cycles and redistribution: The role of government quality," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    14. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 116-151, March.
    16. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esteban, Joan & Levy, Gilat & Mayoral, Laura, 2019. "Personal liberties, religiosity, and effort," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    3. Esteban, Joan Maria & Levy, Gilat & Mayoral, Laura, 2015. "Liberty, Religiosity, and Effort," CEPR Discussion Papers 10841, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    5. Alexis Akira Toda & Kieran James Walsh, 2017. "Fat tails and spurious estimation of consumption‐based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1156-1177, September.
    6. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    7. Theloudis, Alexandros, 2021. "Consumption inequality across heterogeneous families," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Rocio Madera, 2024. "Consumption Dynamics and Welfare under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 11135, CESifo.
    10. Sriya Iyer, 2016. "The New Economics of Religion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 395-441, June.
    11. Rocio Madera & Fatih Guvenen & David Domeij & Christopher Busch, 2016. "Asymmetric Business Cycle Risk and Government Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Spyridon Lazarakis & James Malley & Konstantinos Angelopoulos, 2017. "Asymmetries in Earnings, Employment and Wage Risk in Great Britain," 2017 Meeting Papers 1314, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
    14. Krebs, Tom & Yao, Yao, 2016. "Labor Market Risk in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 9869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Joan-Maria Esteban & Gilat Levy & Laura Mayoral, 2018. "Liberté, Égalité... Religiosité," Working Papers 1030, Barcelona School of Economics.
    16. Koşar, Gizem & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2023. "Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 16013, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    18. Thibaut Lamadon & Elena Manresa & Stephane Bonhomme, 2016. "Discretizing Unobserved Heterogeneity," 2016 Meeting Papers 1536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    20. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    idiosyncratic income risk; countercyclical risk; Business cycles; procyclical skewness; social insurance policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.