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On the Beliefs off the Path: Equilibrium Refinement due to Quantal Response and Level-k

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Abstract
This paper studies the relevance of equilibrium and nonequilibrium explanations of behavior, with respects to equilibrium refinement, as players gain experience. We investigate this experimentally using an incomplete information sequential move game with heterogeneous preferences and multiple perfect equilibria. Only the limit point of quantal response (the limiting logit equilibrium), and alternatively that of level-k reasoning (extensive form rationalizability), restricts beliefs off the equilibrium path. Both concepts converge to the same unique equilibrium, but the predictions differ prior to convergence. We show that with experience of repeated play in relatively constant environments, subjects approach equilibrium via the quantal response learning path. With experience spanning also across relatively novel environments, though, level-k reasoning tends to dominate.

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  • Yves Breitmoser & Jonathan H.W. Tan & Daniel John Zizzo, 2010. "On the Beliefs off the Path: Equilibrium Refinement due to Quantal Response and Level-k," ICBBR Working Papers 9, International Centre for Behavioural Business Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbr:workpa:9
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    3. Wright, James R. & Leyton-Brown, Kevin, 2017. "Predicting human behavior in unrepeated, simultaneous-move games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-37.
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    Keywords

    Incomplete information; equilibrium refinement; logit equilibrium; rationalizability; quantal response; level-k; inequity aversion; experiment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities

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