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Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: A local projection approach

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  • Roberta Colavecchio
  • Ieva Rubene
Abstract
How long does it take for exchange rate changes to pass through into inflation? Does it make a difference whether the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates? Do relatively large exchange rate changes entail more exchange rate pass-through? In this paper, we examine possible non-linearities in the transmission of exchange rate movements to import and consumer prices in all 19 euro area countries as well as the euro area as a whole from 1997 to 2019Q1. We extend a standard single-equation linear framework with additional interaction terms to account for possible non-linearities and apply local projections to obtain state-dependent impulse response functions. We find that (i) euro area consumer and import prices respond significantly to exchange rate movements after one year, responding more when the exchange rate change is relatively large; and (ii) euro appreciations and depreciations affect the level of euro area exchange rate pass-through in a symmetric fashion; (iii) for euro area countries results differ for import and consumer prices and across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Colavecchio & Ieva Rubene, 2019. "Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: A local projection approach," BCL working papers 138, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp138
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    Cited by:

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    3. Camatte, Hadrien & Daudin, Guillaume & Faubert, Violaine & Rifflart, Christine, 2023. "Estimating the elasticity of consumer prices to the exchange rate: An accounting approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Tosapol Apaitan & Pym Manopimoke & Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices in Thailand: Evidence from Micro Data," PIER Discussion Papers 167, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. de Walque, Gregory & Lejeune, Thomas & Rannenberg, Ansgar & Wouters, Raf, 2023. "Low pass-through and international synchronization in general equilibrium: Reassessing vertical integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Takatoshi Sasaki & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jouchi Nakajima, 2023. "Nonlinear Input Cost Pass-through to Consumer Prices: A Threshold Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    7. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Antonia Arsova, 2021. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Europe: a panel cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 61-100, July.
    9. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; Local Projections; Non-Linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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