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Targets and Inflation Dynamics

Author

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  • Sergio A. L. Alves
  • Waldyr D. Areosa
Abstract
Brazil has experienced crucial changes in its inflation process since the adoption of inflation targeting in mid 1999. This article addresses changes in the analytical framework employed to track the inflation dynamics, specifically the relevance of an explicit target for inflation. A New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is derived incorporating indexation not only to past inflation but also to inflation targets, generalizing the Woodford (2003) hybrid curve. In our modeling, firms that do not optimally set their prices in a given period adjust them only by indexing their previous prices to a weighted average of the inflation target and lagged inflation. In such a framework, the impact of inflation targets on agents' decisions regarding the supply side can be analytically measured by the parameter associated to the inflation target. It is shown that inflation target affects the welfare-based monetary policy objective function by penalizing deviations of actual inflation from target instead of from zero. This result establishes the micro foundation basis for ad-hoc loss functions as indicated in traditional literature. Therefore, the inflation target also affects the optimal target criterion. We also present a microfounded specification to model inflation expectations, and conclude that when firms attribute a high weight to the government's inflation target when setting their own prices, exchange rate and demand shocks are unable to alter significantly inflation expectations. Such a result gives some light to empirical ad hoc assessment conducted in traditional literature. Our empirical evidence shows that even after major shocks, the target ability of anchoring inflation has been restored. Although not formally tested, such a fact followed the monetary authorities' firm commitment to meet the inflation targets, reinforced by the government's necessary support through a consistent fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:100
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps100.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    3. Alves, Sergio A Lago & Bugarin, Mirta N S, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 128, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
    5. Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2011. "Moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 100-111.
    8. Sachsida, Adolfo, 2013. "Inflação, Desemprego e Choques Cambiais: Uma Revisão da Literatura sobre a Curva de Phillips no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    9. Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1429, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Gabriele Galati & William R. Melick, 2006. "The evolving inflation process: an overview," BIS Working Papers 196, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Fabrizio Almeida Marodin & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: À Markov Switching DSGE Estimation for the Inflation Targeting Period," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 36-66, March.
    14. Arnildo Da Silva Correa & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2016. "A Tale Of Three Gaps: Unemployment, Capacity Utilization And Output," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Optimal Policy When the Inflation Target is not Optimal," Working Papers Series 271, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2012. "Inflação Versus Desemprego: Novas Evidências Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1763, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

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