[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/19-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Anne-Katherine Cormier
  • Michael Francis
  • Kristina Hess
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
Abstract
Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Overall, we find that much of the unexplained weakness is likely explained by alternative measures of labour market slack—particularly the rise of involuntary part-time work. In addition, changing inflation dynamics and a number of structural factors may also be contributing to the weakness. These factors include weaker bargaining power of workers due to lower unionization rates, increased firm concentration, restrictive labour mobility practices, greater labour market reform and changing demographic factors. Other factors, such as migration and technological change, may also be affecting advanced-economy wage growth, but the direction and magnitude of these impacts are more ambiguous. Identifying and quantifying the causal effects that the factors examined in this note may have on advanced-economy wage growth is beyond the scope of our analysis. However, our review of international evidence does help to recognize likely drivers of the observed weakness in wage growth and lays the foundation for future work examining certain factors in more detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, 2019. "Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/01/staff-analytical-note-2019-3/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/san2019-3.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Kruger & Walter Steingress & Sri Thanabalasingam, 2017. "Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth," Discussion Papers 17-15, Bank of Canada.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman & Hyunseob Kim, 2022. "Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 200-250.
    6. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2017. "The Relative Power of Employment-to-Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Exits in Predicting Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 364-368, May.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    9. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
    10. Fatih Karahan & Ryan Michaels & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin & Rachel Schuh, 2017. "Do Job-to-Job Transitions Drive Wage Fluctuations over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 353-357, May.
    11. Gross, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
    12. Michael Francis & Louis Morel, 2015. "The Slowdown in Global Trade," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Spring), pages 13-25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bank of Thailand, 2023. "Labour market structure and wage dynamics in Thailand," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 287-296, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emin Dinlersoz & Zoltan Wolf, 2024. "Automation, labor share, and productivity: plant-level evidence from U.S. manufacturing," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 604-626, May.
    2. Andrea Salvatori & Seetha Menon & Wouter Zwysen, 2018. "The effect of computer use on job quality: Evidence from Europe," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
    3. Daisuke Adachi & Daiji Kawaguchi & Yukiko U. Saito, 2024. "Robots and Employment: Evidence from Japan, 1978–2017," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 591-634.
    4. Dekle, Robert, 2020. "Robots and industrial labor: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    6. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Aina Gallego & Thomas Kurer & Nikolas Schöll, 2018. "Not so disruptive after all: How workplace digitalization affects political preferences," Economics Working Papers 1623, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 197-236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    10. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    12. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    13. Geiger, Niels & Prettner, Klaus & Schwarzer, Johannes A., 2018. "Automatisierung, Wachstum und Ungleichheit," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 13-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    14. Anna M. Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Productivity and Pay: Is the link broken?," NBER Working Papers 24165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Faber, Marius, 2018. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican local labor markets," Working papers 2018/27, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-298, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    17. Aina Gallego & Thomas Kurer & Nikolas Schöll, 2018. "Neither Left-Behind nor Superstar: Ordinary Winners of Digitalization at the Ballot Box," Working Papers 1063, Barcelona School of Economics.
    18. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2023. "International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    20. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International topics; Labour markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.