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An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Marc-André Gosselin
  • Nicolas Parent
Abstract
Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and agency securities by Asian central banks. In this process, Asian central banks have accumulated large stockpiles of U.S.-dollar foreign exchange reserves. How far is the current level of reserves from that predicted by the standard macroeconomic determinants? The authors answer this question by using Pedroni's (1999) panel cointegration tests as the basis for the estimation of a long-run reserve-demand function in a panel of eight Asian emerging-market economies. This is a key innovation relative to the existing research on international reserves modelling: although the data are typically I(1), the literature ignores this fact and makes statistical inference based on unadjusted standard errors. While the authors find evidence of a positive structural break in the demand for international reserves by Asian central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 1997-98, their results indicate that the actual level of reserves accumulated in 2003-04 was still in excess relative to that predicted by the model. Therefore, as long as historical relationships hold, a slowdown in the rate of accumulation of reserves is likely. This poses negative risks for the U.S. dollar. However, both the substantial capital losses that Asian central banks would incur if they were to drastically change their holding policy and the evidence that the currency composition of reserves evolves only gradually mitigate the risks of a rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar triggered by Asian central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc-André Gosselin & Nicolas Parent, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia," Staff Working Papers 05-38, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2018. "Turning over a golden leaf? Global liquidity and emerging market central banks’ demand for gold after the financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-109.
    3. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    4. Donghyun Park & Gemma Esther B. Estrada, 2010. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in the ASEAN-4 : challenges, opportunities, and policy options," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 89-108, June.
    5. Pingfan Hong & Rob Vos & Keping Yao, 2008. "How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 35-50, September.
    6. Prabheesh, K P & Malathy, D & Madhumathi, R, 2007. "Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 13969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Samih Antoine Azar & Wael Aboukhodor, 2017. "Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Macro-economy in the GCC Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 1-72, August.
    8. Francis A. Eniekezimene & ThankGod O. Apere, 2016. "External Reserve Management and Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111.
    9. Chandan Sharma & Sunny K Singh, 2014. "Determinants of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Asia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1696-1703.
    10. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    11. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Rachna Agrawal & Ashima Verma, 2023. "Investigating the efficiency of foreign exchange reserves using stochastic frontier analysis: Evidence across the globe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1376-1390, April.
    13. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 315-336.
    14. G. Andrew Karolyi & David T. Ng & Eswar S. Prasad, 2013. "The Coming Wave," Working Papers 082013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Anthonia U. UBOM & Joseph Michael ESSIEN & Uduak B. UBOM, 2017. "Economic Implication of Foreign Reserves Management on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy, 1995 to 2013," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 31-40.
    16. Anthonia U. UBOM & Joseph Michael ESSIEN & Uduak B. UBOM, 2017. "Economic Implications of Foreign Reserves Management on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy, 1995-2013," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5, pages 31-40.
    17. Gabriel Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2009. "Sovereign external assets and the resilience of global imbalances," Working Papers 0834, Banco de España.
    18. Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2008. "Reserves, Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Resilience of Global Imbalances," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 315-343, November.
    19. Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2007. "Global financial integration, monetary policy and reserve accumulation. Assessing the limits in emerging economies," Working Papers 0706, Banco de España.
    20. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2008. "Cost of Holding Excess Reserves - The Indian Experience," Finance Working Papers 22165, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    21. Mohammad Kashif & P. Sridharan & S. Thiyagarajan, 2017. "Factors Affecting International Reserves with Special Reference to India," Vision, , vol. 21(4), pages 339-349, December.
    22. Park, Donghyun, 2007. "Beyond Liquidity: New Uses for Developing Asia's Foreign Exchange Reserves," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 109, Asian Development Bank.
    23. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands," IMF Working Papers 2012/205, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Eric Santor, 2006. "Governance and the IMF: Does the Fund Follow Corporate Best Practice?," Staff Working Papers 06-32, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; International topics; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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