[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ave/wpaper/242005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Pompeo Della Posta

    (University of Pisa)

Abstract
The predictions made by economists of the value of the euro prior to its introduction were essentially based on the expected portfolio adjustment resulting from the role that it might play as an international currency. As a result, most analysts agreed that the euro would be a strong currency, appreciating against the US dollar. The first years of life of the ‘virtual’ euro contradicted such a forecast. Economists therefore abandoned predictions based on the euro as a ‘global’ money and directed their focus almost exclusively towards traditional, ‘fundamentals-based’ explanations. Among these explanations, several authors mentioned the unsatisfactory structural and institutional set up of the EMU. Nevertheless, later on, when the euro started appreciating, a different set of fundamentals had to be isolated in order to account for such behaviour. It is possible to argue, then, that the EMU economic structure and institutions are, or at least are currently perceived as, capable of supporting a strong euro, which plays the role of international money. ‘Framing’ of expectations, however, still keeps driving the behaviour of the exchange rate, so that the same structural and institutional set up may be subject to different evaluations, depending on the particular state of expectations of the international currency markets. Finally, since the available evidence suggests that the euro is starting to play an international role, I argue that the ‘international money’ and the ‘framing’ of expectations approaches explain the behaviour of the dollar/euro exchange rate better than the ‘fundamentals' one.

Suggested Citation

  • Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 24, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    • Handle: RePEc:ave:wpaper:242005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ua.pt/egi/ReadObject.aspx?obj=11008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    2. Helmut Frisch, 2003. "The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 15-31, March.
    3. Mehl, Arnaud & Geis, André & Wredenborg, Stefan, 2004. "The international role of the euro: evidence from bonds issued by non-euro area residents," Occasional Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    4. Domenico Sartore & Marcello Esposito, 2002. "Guest Editorial," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 346-351.
    5. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:329-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May.
    8. Neaime, Simon & Paschakis, John, 2002. "The future of the dollar-euro exchange rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 56-71, May.
    9. André Geis & Arnaud Mehl & Stefan Wredenborg, 2004. "The international role of the euro - evidence from bonds issued by non-euro area residents," Occasional Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    10. Michele Fratianni & Andreas Hauskrecht & Aurelio Maccario, 1998. "Dominant Currencies and the Future of the Euro," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 467-492, January.
    11. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "The Deutschmark in Eastern Europe, Black Money and the Euro: On the Size of the Effect," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(03), pages 35-40, February.
    12. Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 421-435, October.
    13. McKinnon, Ronald, 2002. "The euro versus the dollar: resolving a historical puzzle," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 355-359, July.
    14. Kaikati, Jack G., 1999. "The Euro versus the U.S. dollar: an overview," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 171-192, July.
    15. Robert Mundell, 1998. "What the euro means for the dollar and the international Monetary system," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 227-237, September.
    16. Hartmann, Philipp & Issing, Otmar, 2002. "The international role of the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 315-345, July.
    17. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    18. Mussa, Michael, 2000. "The Relationship Between the Euro and the Dollar," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 369-377, May.
    19. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "The Euro One Year On," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-368, May.
    21. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:41:y:2003:i::p:575-595 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    23. Mr. Guy M Meredith, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?," IMF Working Papers 2001/155, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Benjamin J. Cohen, 2003. "Can the Euro Ever Challenge the Dollar?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 575-595, September.
    25. Dominick Salvatore, 2002. "The EURO: Expectations and Performance," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 121-136, Winter.
    26. Patricia S. Pollard, 2001. "The creation of the Euro and the role of the dollar in international markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 17-36.
    27. Kenen, Peter B., 2002. "The euro versus the dollar: will there be a struggle for dominance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 347-354, July.
    28. Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "The euro versus the dollar: will there be a struggle for dominance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 307-314, July.
    29. Jörg Bibow, 2002. "The Euro: Market Failure or Central Bank Failure?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 83-99.
    30. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:357-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helmut Frisch, 2003. "The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 15-31, March.
    2. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    3. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    4. Kari Heimonen, 2009. "The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 27-42, April.
    6. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    7. repec:got:cegedp:89 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 27-42, 04.
      • Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2002(CESIFOFOR), pages 27-42, 04.
    9. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Shams, Rasul, 2005. "Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate 1999-2004: Dollar and Euro as International Currencies," HWWA Discussion Papers 321, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    11. Shams, Rasul, 2005. "Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate 1999-2004 - Dollar and Euro as International Currencies," Discussion Paper Series 26228, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    12. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    13. Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 2004. "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: from post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1109-1136.
    14. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2008. "The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-207, June.
    15. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US‐Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, February.
    16. Subacchi, Paola, 2013. "Expanding Beyond Borders: The Yen and the Yuan," ADBI Working Papers 450, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    17. Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2006. "The Euro and Other Major Currencies Floating Against the U.S. Dollar," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 367-384, December.
    18. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Andrew Brown & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "The Causes of Euro Instability," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_324, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    22. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro; Dollar; Fundamentals; International currency; Portfolio adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ave:wpaper:242005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marta Ferreira Dias (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deavept.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.